Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service and NOAA forecast models for New York City's highest temperature on March 28, with the 40-41°F and 42-43°F bins deadlocked at 26.5% implied probabilities amid a model spread of 38-45°F. Latest 12Z GFS and ECMWF runs diverge on afternoon boundary layer mixing and cloud clearance following a weak frontal passage, with GFS cooler at 41°F due to persistent low-level moisture while ECMWF projects 44°F under stronger insolation. Historical late-March averages hover near 48°F, but neutral ENSO conditions and jet stream positioning favor below-normal temps; watch 00Z model updates tonight for potential refinements ahead of the diurnal maximum near Central Park.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Nova York em 28 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Nova York em 28 de março?
42-43°F 25%
40-41°F 25%
44-45°F 22%
46-47°F 12.1%
35°F ou menos
2%
36-37°F
4%
38-39°F
8%
40-41°F
25%
42-43°F
25%
44-45°F
22%
46-47°F
12%
48-49°F
10%
50-51°F
5%
52-53°F
3%
54°F ou mais
2%
42-43°F 25%
40-41°F 25%
44-45°F 22%
46-47°F 12.1%
35°F ou menos
2%
36-37°F
4%
38-39°F
8%
40-41°F
25%
42-43°F
25%
44-45°F
22%
46-47°F
12%
48-49°F
10%
50-51°F
5%
52-53°F
3%
54°F ou mais
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service and NOAA forecast models for New York City's highest temperature on March 28, with the 40-41°F and 42-43°F bins deadlocked at 26.5% implied probabilities amid a model spread of 38-45°F. Latest 12Z GFS and ECMWF runs diverge on afternoon boundary layer mixing and cloud clearance following a weak frontal passage, with GFS cooler at 41°F due to persistent low-level moisture while ECMWF projects 44°F under stronger insolation. Historical late-March averages hover near 48°F, but neutral ENSO conditions and jet stream positioning favor below-normal temps; watch 00Z model updates tonight for potential refinements ahead of the diurnal maximum near Central Park.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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