Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz holds a commanding 66.5% implied probability in the FL-23 Democratic primary market, reflecting his strong fundraising—topping $372,000 in Q3 2025—and name recognition advantages in Florida's closed primary on August 18. Challenger Oliver Adams Larkin, a Democratic Socialist union organizer, has surged to 33% following the Democratic Socialists of America's first 2026 federal endorsement last week and a mid-March Center for Strategic Politics poll showing him leading 49-36 after balanced biographies, amid voter preferences for reducing military aid to Israel. Traders weigh Moskowitz's incumbency and broad Democratic support against Larkin's progressive momentum, with no other challengers gaining traction.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado$10,847 Vol.
$10,847 Vol.
Jared Moskowitz
67%
Oliver Adams Larkin
33%
$10,847 Vol.
$10,847 Vol.
Jared Moskowitz
67%
Oliver Adams Larkin
33%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Jared Moskowitz holds a commanding 66.5% implied probability in the FL-23 Democratic primary market, reflecting his strong fundraising—topping $372,000 in Q3 2025—and name recognition advantages in Florida's closed primary on August 18. Challenger Oliver Adams Larkin, a Democratic Socialist union organizer, has surged to 33% following the Democratic Socialists of America's first 2026 federal endorsement last week and a mid-March Center for Strategic Politics poll showing him leading 49-36 after balanced biographies, amid voter preferences for reducing military aid to Israel. Traders weigh Moskowitz's incumbency and broad Democratic support against Larkin's progressive momentum, with no other challengers gaining traction.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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