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Política·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor das eleições parlamentares da Etiópia

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Política·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor das eleições parlamentares da Etiópia

Prosperidade 95.2%

GPDP 3.4%

NaMA 1.3%

TPLF <1%

Polymarket
NOVO

Prosperidade 95.2%

GPDP 3.4%

NaMA 1.3%

TPLF <1%

Polymarket
NOVO
O Partido Prosperidade (Prosperidade) ganhará mais assentos nas eleições gerais etíopes de 2026? icon

Prosperidade

$3,070 Vol.

95%

O Partido Democrático do Povo Gedeo (GPDP) ganhará a maioria dos assentos nas eleições gerais etíopes de 2026? icon

GPDP

$1,708 Vol.

3%

O Movimento Nacional de Amhara (NaMA) vai ganhar mais cadeiras nas eleições gerais etíopes de 2026? icon

NaMA

$1,459 Vol.

1%

O Frente de Libertação do Povo Tigré (TPLF) vencerá a maioria das cadeiras nas eleições gerais etíopes de 2026? icon

TPLF

$1,103 Vol.

<1%

O Partido dos Cidadãos Etíopes pela Justiça Social (EZEMA) ganhará mais assentos nas eleições gerais etíopes de 2026? icon

EZEMA

$0 Vol.

<1%

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).Prosperity Party holds commanding 95.3% trader consensus as the Ethiopia parliamentary election winner on June 1, 2026, reflecting its entrenched incumbency and 2021 supermajority amid opposition boycotts and uncontested seats. Recent National Election Board of Ethiopia announcement of 36.9 million registered voters on April 2 signals proceeding preparations, but ongoing conflicts with Fano militias in Amhara, Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia, and Tigray non-participation post-TPLF deregistration constrain opposition like NaMA and EZEMA. Fragmented parties and security barriers echo prior dynamics favoring the ruling party. Upsets could arise from widespread postponements, unified boycotts invalidating results, or late scandals, though structural advantages persist.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).
Volume
$7,340
Data de Término
1 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 3:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).Prosperity Party holds commanding 95.3% trader consensus as the Ethiopia parliamentary election winner on June 1, 2026, reflecting its entrenched incumbency and 2021 supermajority amid opposition boycotts and uncontested seats. Recent National Election Board of Ethiopia announcement of 36.9 million registered voters on April 2 signals proceeding preparations, but ongoing conflicts with Fano militias in Amhara, Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia, and Tigray non-participation post-TPLF deregistration constrain opposition like NaMA and EZEMA. Fragmented parties and security barriers echo prior dynamics favoring the ruling party. Upsets could arise from widespread postponements, unified boycotts invalidating results, or late scandals, though structural advantages persist.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).
Volume
$7,340
Data de Término
1 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 3:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Ethiopian House of Peoples' Representatives election. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Ethiopian Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Ethiopian government, specifically the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) (nebe.org.et/en).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das eleições parlamentares da Etiópia" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Prosperidade" at 95%, followed by "GPDP" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vencedor das eleições parlamentares da Etiópia" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 16, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vencedor das eleições parlamentares da Etiópia," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor das eleições parlamentares da Etiópia" is "Prosperidade" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "GPDP" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das eleições parlamentares da Etiópia" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.