Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia

Name: Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia
Start: 2025-10-09T23:36:09.952Z
End: 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z

Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia — Discussão

10G · 2025-10-09T23:36:09.952Z

Discussão sobre Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia. Os traders compartilham insights e previsões no Polymarket.

Eleições·Eleições Nos EUA

Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia

Eric Swalwell 66%

Tom Steyer 11.9%

Matt Mahan 8%

Steve Hilton 6.5%

$3,398,638 Vol.

Nov 3, 2026

Eric Swalwell

$75,759 Vol.

66%

Tom Steyer

$666,661 Vol.

12%

Matt Mahan

$156,122 Vol.

Steve Hilton

$375,158 Vol.

Katie Porter

$439,731 Vol.

Chad Bianco

$386,850 Vol.

Elaine Culotti

$42,744 Vol.

Xavier Becerra

$284,967 Vol.

<1%

Tony Thurmond

$107,359 Vol.

<1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$40,219 Vol.

<1%

Leo Zacky

$13,109 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Mercuri

$23,428 Vol.

<1%

Rick Caruso

$29,473 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Cloobeck

$25,565 Vol.

<1%

Betty Yee

$56,250 Vol.

<1%

Kyle Langford

$46,051 Vol.

<1%

Eleni Kounalakis

$174,063 Vol.

<1%

Kamala Harris

$69,083 Vol.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$76,569 Vol.

<1%

Butch Ware

$21,200 Vol.

<1%

Toni Atkins

$139,164 Vol.

<1%

Michael Younger

$65,563 Vol.

<1%

Nicole Shanahan

$83,551 Vol.

<1%

Eric Swalwell 66%

Tom Steyer 11.9%

Matt Mahan 8%

Steve Hilton 6.5%

$3,398,638 Vol.

Nov 3, 2026

Eric Swalwell

$75,759 Vol.

66%

Tom Steyer

$666,661 Vol.

12%

Matt Mahan

$156,122 Vol.

Steve Hilton

$375,158 Vol.

Katie Porter

$439,731 Vol.

Chad Bianco

$386,850 Vol.

Elaine Culotti

$42,744 Vol.

Xavier Becerra

$284,967 Vol.

<1%

Tony Thurmond

$107,359 Vol.

<1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$40,219 Vol.

<1%

Leo Zacky

$13,109 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Mercuri

$23,428 Vol.

<1%

Rick Caruso

$29,473 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Cloobeck

$25,565 Vol.

<1%

Betty Yee

$56,250 Vol.

<1%

Kyle Langford

$46,051 Vol.

<1%

Eleni Kounalakis

$174,063 Vol.

<1%

Kamala Harris

$69,083 Vol.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$76,569 Vol.

<1%

Butch Ware

$21,200 Vol.

<1%

Toni Atkins

$139,164 Vol.

<1%

Michael Younger

$65,563 Vol.

<1%

Nicole Shanahan

$83,551 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Rep. Eric Swalwell at 64.5% for the 2026 California gubernatorial election, driven by his national profile from congressional service and impeachment proceedings, despite no formal campaign announcement. This open race follows Gov. Gavin Newsom's term limits, attracting a crowded Democratic field including billionaire Tom Steyer (11%) and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (8%), while conservative Steve Hilton (6.6%) and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco (2.6%) lag. Recent developments remain sparse—no major endorsements or polls have emerged to shift dynamics—with odds reflecting early speculative bets ahead of 2026 filings and primaries. Uncertainty persists as high-profile entrants like Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis could alter trajectories.

Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado Mar 21, 2026, 3:25 AM UTC

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Swalwell" at 66%, followed by "Tom Steyer" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 66¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" has generated $3.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" is "Eric Swalwell" at 66%, meaning the market assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tom Steyer" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $3.4 million traded on “Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 66¢ for "Eric Swalwell" in the "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 66% chance that "Eric Swalwell" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 66¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 34¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Nov 3, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" market has an active community of 13 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia

Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia

Regras

Contexto de Mercado

Contexto de Mercado

Comentários (13)

Top Holders

Cargos

Actividade

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia"?

What are the current odds for "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia"?

How will "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" be resolved?

Can I follow "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia"?

What does a price of 66¢ for "Eric Swalwell" mean?

When does the "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia" market close?

What are traders saying about "Vencedor da eleição para governador da Califórnia"?

What is Polymarket?