Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Chun Jae-soo at 71% implied probability to win the 2026 Busan mayoral election, driven by his dominant lead in recent polls (around 40-50% support) and the People Power Party's (PPP) early nomination of the four-term lawmaker as its candidate. Incumbent Mayor Park Heong-joon trails at 24.5%, buoyed by his 2021 by-election victory but hampered by middling approval ratings amid local development disputes and national PPP headwinds. Fragmented opposition—Democratic Party's Suh Byung-soo and Cho Kuk's Rebuilding Korea Party—dilutes challengers, with no one above 1.5%. Recent PPP primary clarity and Busan-specific surveys have widened Chun's edge, though national political shifts like presidential probes could influence turnout by June 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição municipal de Busan em 2026
Vencedor da eleição municipal de Busan em 2026
Chun Jae-soo 71%
Park Heong-joon 24%
Lee Jae-sung 1.4%
Choi In-ho <1%

Chun Jae-soo
71%

Park Heong-joon
24%

Lee Jae-sung
1%

Choi In-ho
1%

Cho Kuk
1%

Suh Byung-soo
1%

Cho Kyoung-tae
1%

Park Jae-ho
1%

Park Seong-hoon
<1%

Kim Do-eup
<1%

Kim Young-choon
<1%

Hong Soon-heon
<1%
Chun Jae-soo 71%
Park Heong-joon 24%
Lee Jae-sung 1.4%
Choi In-ho <1%

Chun Jae-soo
71%

Park Heong-joon
24%

Lee Jae-sung
1%

Choi In-ho
1%

Cho Kuk
1%

Suh Byung-soo
1%

Cho Kyoung-tae
1%

Park Jae-ho
1%

Park Seong-hoon
<1%

Kim Do-eup
<1%

Kim Young-choon
<1%

Hong Soon-heon
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 12, 2025, 7:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Chun Jae-soo at 71% implied probability to win the 2026 Busan mayoral election, driven by his dominant lead in recent polls (around 40-50% support) and the People Power Party's (PPP) early nomination of the four-term lawmaker as its candidate. Incumbent Mayor Park Heong-joon trails at 24.5%, buoyed by his 2021 by-election victory but hampered by middling approval ratings amid local development disputes and national PPP headwinds. Fragmented opposition—Democratic Party's Suh Byung-soo and Cho Kuk's Rebuilding Korea Party—dilutes challengers, with no one above 1.5%. Recent PPP primary clarity and Busan-specific surveys have widened Chun's edge, though national political shifts like presidential probes could influence turnout by June 2026.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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