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Government Shutdown predictions & odds

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Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

78%

Shutdown & Democratic Party

$323K Vol.

$28.0K Liq.

12

Ends in 6 months

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

3%

$105K Vol.

$14.7K Liq.

2

Ends in about 1 month

Major US official out by May 31?

Major US official out by May 31?

16%

$19.8K Vol.

$11.0K Liq.

Ends in 14 days

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

50%

June 30

$18M Vol.

$400K today

$232K Liq.

472

Ends in about 1 month

Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by...?

Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by...?

73%

December 31, 2026

$7.3K Vol.

$58 Liq.

1

Ends in 8 months

Trump ballroom project unblocked by...?

Trump ballroom project unblocked by...?

27%

May 31

$30.3K Vol.

$572 Liq.

4

Ends in 14 days

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?

39%

May 31

$286K Vol.

$49.5K Liq.

8

Ends in 14 days

Nothing Ever Happens: March

Nothing Ever Happens: March

62%

Nothing

$341K Vol.

$3.7K Liq.

Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by...?

Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by...?

3%

May 31

$145K Vol.

$19.0K Liq.

10

White House # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?

White House # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?

63%

180-199

$37.4K Vol.

$6.9K Liq.

Ends in 3 days

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

48%

$12.6K Vol.

$8.4K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

White House # posts May 15 - May 22, 2026?

White House # posts May 15 - May 22, 2026?

50%

160-179

$8.8K Vol.

$19.6K Liq.

Ends in 6 days

Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?

Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?

66%

$1.4K Vol.

$2.6K Liq.

Ends in 14 days

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

33%

December 31

$3.2K Vol.

$168K Liq.

2

Ends in 8 months

White House # posts May 19 - May 26, 2026?

White House # posts May 19 - May 26, 2026?

23%

140-159

$1.5K Vol.

$22.8K Liq.

Ends in 10 days

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

98%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$1M Vol.

$74.4K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?

Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?

11%

$17.6K Vol.

$15.4K Liq.

9

Ends in 8 months

UK Government approval Up or Down this week?

UK Government approval Up or Down this week?

66%

Up

$250 Vol.

$33 Liq.

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

65%

$568K Vol.

$24.5K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027?

Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027?

10%

$10.7K Vol.

$11.8K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Government Shutdown.

Polymarket currently hosts 101 active markets for Government Shutdown that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $21.2M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Nothing Ever Happens: March”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 50% chance to June 30. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Government Shutdown predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.