Market icon
Economy·Real Estate·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in the US be on April 1?

Market icon
Economy·Real Estate·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in the US be on April 1?

427.5 - 430k 45.1%

425 - 427.5k 24%

430 - 432.5k 3.5%

422.5 - 425k 2.1%

Polymarket

$21,471 Vol.

427.5 - 430k 45.1%

425 - 427.5k 24%

430 - 432.5k 3.5%

422.5 - 425k 2.1%

Polymarket

$21,471 Vol.

<420k

$255 Vol.

2%

420 - 422.5k

$241 Vol.

1%

422.5 - 425k

$6,918 Vol.

2%

425 - 427.5k

$8,761 Vol.

23%

427.5 - 430k

$1,221 Vol.

45%

430 - 432.5k

$1,212 Vol.

4%

432.5 - 435k

$2,504 Vol.

2%

>435k

$360 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80% implied probability that the Parcl Labs US Sales Price Index-derived median home value—calculated as national price per square foot times 2,000 median square footage—will fall in the $427,500–$430,000 range on April 1, 2026, anchored by Redfin's February median sale price of $429,189, up just 0.9% year-over-year amid flat month-over-month growth. This positioning reflects stabilized pricing dynamics from low housing inventory and elevated mortgage rates above 6.5%, limiting transactions while supporting values, as echoed in FHFA's 1.8% annual house price rise through Q4 2025. Recent Zillow ZHVI data at $360,591 for February shows similar stagnation, with no major catalysts in the past week to shift sentiment ahead of today's Parcl release.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)
Volume
$21,471
End Date
Apr 1, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 27, 2026, 6:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 80% implied probability that the Parcl Labs US Sales Price Index-derived median home value—calculated as national price per square foot times 2,000 median square footage—will fall in the $427,500–$430,000 range on April 1, 2026, anchored by Redfin's February median sale price of $429,189, up just 0.9% year-over-year amid flat month-over-month growth. This positioning reflects stabilized pricing dynamics from low housing inventory and elevated mortgage rates above 6.5%, limiting transactions while supporting values, as echoed in FHFA's 1.8% annual house price rise through Q4 2025. Recent Zillow ZHVI data at $360,591 for February shows similar stagnation, with no major catalysts in the past week to shift sentiment ahead of today's Parcl release.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)
Volume
$21,471
End Date
Apr 1, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 27, 2026, 6:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the median home value in the US be on April 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "427.5 - 430k" at 45%, followed by "425 - 427.5k" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will the median home value in the US be on April 1?" has generated $21.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will the median home value in the US be on April 1?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will the median home value in the US be on April 1?" is "427.5 - 430k" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "425 - 427.5k" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will the median home value in the US be on April 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.