The EU's treaty framework, requiring unanimous consent for fundamental changes and lacking any active Article 50 withdrawal procedures among member states, anchors trader consensus at a 96.5% probability against dissolution before 2027. Ongoing institutional activity—including enlargement talks with candidate countries, regulatory harmonization across the single market, and coordinated responses to trade and migration pressures—reinforces cohesion, as does demonstrated resilience amid recent geopolitical tensions. Euroskeptic parties have prioritized policy renegotiation over exits, with post-Brexit economic outcomes and narrow parliamentary majorities further limiting near-term pathways. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a major member state triggering withdrawal amid domestic upheaval or an acute systemic crisis fracturing consensus on core treaties, though both remain remote within the resolution window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트EU는 2027년 이전에 해체되나요?
EU는 2027년 이전에 해체되나요?
예
$170,410 거래량
$170,410 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$170,410 거래량
$170,410 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The EU's treaty framework, requiring unanimous consent for fundamental changes and lacking any active Article 50 withdrawal procedures among member states, anchors trader consensus at a 96.5% probability against dissolution before 2027. Ongoing institutional activity—including enlargement talks with candidate countries, regulatory harmonization across the single market, and coordinated responses to trade and migration pressures—reinforces cohesion, as does demonstrated resilience amid recent geopolitical tensions. Euroskeptic parties have prioritized policy renegotiation over exits, with post-Brexit economic outcomes and narrow parliamentary majorities further limiting near-term pathways. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a major member state triggering withdrawal amid domestic upheaval or an acute systemic crisis fracturing consensus on core treaties, though both remain remote within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
거래량
$170,410종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The EU's treaty framework, requiring unanimous consent for fundamental changes and lacking any active Article 50 withdrawal procedures among member states, anchors trader consensus at a 96.5% probability against dissolution before 2027. Ongoing institutional activity—including enlargement talks with candidate countries, regulatory harmonization across the single market, and coordinated responses to trade and migration pressures—reinforces cohesion, as does demonstrated resilience amid recent geopolitical tensions. Euroskeptic parties have prioritized policy renegotiation over exits, with post-Brexit economic outcomes and narrow parliamentary majorities further limiting near-term pathways. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a major member state triggering withdrawal amid domestic upheaval or an acute systemic crisis fracturing consensus on core treaties, though both remain remote within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$170,410종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The EU's treaty framework, requiring unanimous consent for fundamental changes and lacking any active Article 50 withdrawal procedures among member states, anchors trader consensus at a 96.5% probability against dissolution before 2027. Ongoing institutional activity—including enlargement talks with candidate countries, regulatory harmonization across the single market, and coordinated responses to trade and migration pressures—reinforces cohesion, as does demonstrated resilience amid recent geopolitical tensions. Euroskeptic parties have prioritized policy renegotiation over exits, with post-Brexit economic outcomes and narrow parliamentary majorities further limiting near-term pathways. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a major member state triggering withdrawal amid domestic upheaval or an acute systemic crisis fracturing consensus on core treaties, though both remain remote within the resolution window.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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