Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 280-339 tweets for Elon Musk during March 27-April 3, 2026, with 300-319 and 320-339 bins tied at 11.5% implied probability, reflecting his consistent high-volume posting patterns averaging 35-45 posts daily in recent months amid Tesla updates, xAI developments, and political commentary. Recent weeks show steady output—around 280 last week and 320 the prior—without major shifts from announcements or platform changes, keeping the field tightly contested as traders weigh potential spikes from earnings calls or viral moments against quieter periods. Key differentiators include any confirmed 2026 calendar events boosting engagement, though high uncertainty persists given Musk's unpredictable social media cadence. Watch for evolving X metrics as the date nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated300-319 12%
320-339 12%
280-299 11%
340-359 11%
$3,918,516 Vol.
$3,918,516 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
3%
200-219
4%
220-239
5%
240-259
7%
260-279
9%
280-299
11%
300-319
12%
320-339
12%
340-359
11%
360-379
9%
380-399
8%
400-419
4%
420-439
2%
440-459
3%
460-479
2%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
300-319 12%
320-339 12%
280-299 11%
340-359 11%
$3,918,516 Vol.
$3,918,516 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
3%
200-219
4%
220-239
5%
240-259
7%
260-279
9%
280-299
11%
300-319
12%
320-339
12%
340-359
11%
360-379
9%
380-399
8%
400-419
4%
420-439
2%
440-459
3%
460-479
2%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 280-339 tweets for Elon Musk during March 27-April 3, 2026, with 300-319 and 320-339 bins tied at 11.5% implied probability, reflecting his consistent high-volume posting patterns averaging 35-45 posts daily in recent months amid Tesla updates, xAI developments, and political commentary. Recent weeks show steady output—around 280 last week and 320 the prior—without major shifts from announcements or platform changes, keeping the field tightly contested as traders weigh potential spikes from earnings calls or viral moments against quieter periods. Key differentiators include any confirmed 2026 calendar events boosting engagement, though high uncertainty persists given Musk's unpredictable social media cadence. Watch for evolving X metrics as the date nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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