Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 240-299 tweets for Elon Musk during March 24-31, 2026, with 260-279 tweets leading at 14.5% implied probability, reflecting his sustained high-volume posting patterns averaging 40-60 per day in late 2024. Recent post-election surges—peaking near 100 daily amid Trump administration ties and DOGE rumors—drove optimism for continued virality, but December's slight dip to 30-40 posts amid SpaceX Starship focus and xAI updates tempers expectations, creating the close race among top ranges. Differentiators include potential government efficiency role reducing bandwidth versus amplified cultural feuds or Tesla launches boosting engagement; long-term unpredictability looms from X platform tweaks or personal shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated260-279 15%
240-259 13%
280-299 13%
300-319 11%
$2,402,345 Vol.
$2,402,345 Vol.
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
3%
200-219
6%
220-239
9%
240-259
13%
260-279
15%
280-299
13%
300-319
11%
320-339
9%
340-359
7%
360-379
5%
380-399
4%
400-419
3%
420-439
1%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
260-279 15%
240-259 13%
280-299 13%
300-319 11%
$2,402,345 Vol.
$2,402,345 Vol.
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
1%
180-199
3%
200-219
6%
220-239
9%
240-259
13%
260-279
15%
280-299
13%
300-319
11%
320-339
9%
340-359
7%
360-379
5%
380-399
4%
400-419
3%
420-439
1%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 21, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 240-299 tweets for Elon Musk during March 24-31, 2026, with 260-279 tweets leading at 14.5% implied probability, reflecting his sustained high-volume posting patterns averaging 40-60 per day in late 2024. Recent post-election surges—peaking near 100 daily amid Trump administration ties and DOGE rumors—drove optimism for continued virality, but December's slight dip to 30-40 posts amid SpaceX Starship focus and xAI updates tempers expectations, creating the close race among top ranges. Differentiators include potential government efficiency role reducing bandwidth versus amplified cultural feuds or Tesla launches boosting engagement; long-term unpredictability looms from X platform tweaks or personal shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
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