Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 1280-1519 tweets for Elon Musk's @elonmusk activity in April 2026, with the 1400-1439 range leading at 12.3% implied probability, reflecting his recent monthly volumes of 1200-1500 posts amid steady X engagement on Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, and political commentary. No major shifts in the past 30 days, as Musk's posting rate—averaging 40-50 daily—has held consistent post-2024 election cycles, but traders split finely due to uncertainty over future catalysts like AI advancements or regulatory battles that could spike output, versus potential moderation from delegation or platform changes. Key differentiators include historical peaks during controversies (e.g., 2024's 1600+ months) and baseline cultural force as X's most-followed voice, with resolution hinging on official monthly tallies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated1400-1439 12.2%
1360-1399 10.8%
1440-1479 9.0%
1280-1319 8.8%
$4,346,755 Vol.
$4,346,755 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
2%
840-879
1%
880-919
1%
920-959
1%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
1%
1040-1079
1%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
5%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
5%
1240-1279
6%
1280-1319
9%
1320-1359
9%
1360-1399
11%
1400-1439
12%
1440-1479
9%
1480-1519
8%
1520-1559
5%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
4%
1680-1759
3%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
1%
1400-1439 12.2%
1360-1399 10.8%
1440-1479 9.0%
1280-1319 8.8%
$4,346,755 Vol.
$4,346,755 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
<1%
640-659
<1%
660-679
<1%
680-699
<1%
700-719
<1%
720-739
<1%
740-759
<1%
760-779
1%
780-799
1%
800-839
2%
840-879
1%
880-919
1%
920-959
1%
960-999
2%
1000-1039
1%
1040-1079
1%
1080-1119
2%
1120-1159
5%
1160-1199
4%
1200-1239
5%
1240-1279
6%
1280-1319
9%
1320-1359
9%
1360-1399
11%
1400-1439
12%
1440-1479
9%
1480-1519
8%
1520-1559
5%
1560-1599
4%
1600-1679
4%
1680-1759
3%
1760-1839
2%
1840-1919
2%
1920-1999
2%
2000+
1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 1280-1519 tweets for Elon Musk's @elonmusk activity in April 2026, with the 1400-1439 range leading at 12.3% implied probability, reflecting his recent monthly volumes of 1200-1500 posts amid steady X engagement on Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, and political commentary. No major shifts in the past 30 days, as Musk's posting rate—averaging 40-50 daily—has held consistent post-2024 election cycles, but traders split finely due to uncertainty over future catalysts like AI advancements or regulatory battles that could spike output, versus potential moderation from delegation or platform changes. Key differentiators include historical peaks during controversies (e.g., 2024's 1600+ months) and baseline cultural force as X's most-followed voice, with resolution hinging on official monthly tallies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions