Traders have assigned a 70.5% implied probability to June crude oil futures settling above $84 per barrel, driven primarily by persistent supply constraints from OPEC+ output cuts and recent geopolitical tensions in major producing regions. U.S. inventory draws reported in the latest EIA data have supported this positioning, while resilient global demand metrics and steady economic growth in key import markets limit downside pressure. Market-implied odds for the $77–$84 band stand at 17.0%, reflecting scenarios of gradual demand moderation, though current trader consensus indicates limited scope for sharper declines absent unexpected macroeconomic shifts. Upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC policy statement and fresh inventory releases that could refine rate-path expectations and energy price trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhat will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
>$84 71%
$77-$84 17%
$70-$77 8.0%
$63-$70 2.6%
$161,143 Vol.
$161,143 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<$42
1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
2%
$63-$70
3%
$70-$77
8%
$77-$84
17%
>$84
71%
>$84 71%
$77-$84 17%
$70-$77 8.0%
$63-$70 2.6%
$161,143 Vol.
$161,143 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<$42
$17,183 Vol.
1%
$42-$49
$5,944 Vol.
<1%
$49-$56
$7,122 Vol.
1%
$56-$63
$7,223 Vol.
2%
$63-$70
$20,853 Vol.
3%
$70-$77
$12,460 Vol.
8%
$77-$84
$13,714 Vol.
17%
>$84
$76,644 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Traders have assigned a 70.5% implied probability to June crude oil futures settling above $84 per barrel, driven primarily by persistent supply constraints from OPEC+ output cuts and recent geopolitical tensions in major producing regions. U.S. inventory draws reported in the latest EIA data have supported this positioning, while resilient global demand metrics and steady economic growth in key import markets limit downside pressure. Market-implied odds for the $77–$84 band stand at 17.0%, reflecting scenarios of gradual demand moderation, though current trader consensus indicates limited scope for sharper declines absent unexpected macroeconomic shifts. Upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC policy statement and fresh inventory releases that could refine rate-path expectations and energy price trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Market Opened: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Volume
$161,143End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Traders have assigned a 70.5% implied probability to June crude oil futures settling above $84 per barrel, driven primarily by persistent supply constraints from OPEC+ output cuts and recent geopolitical tensions in major producing regions. U.S. inventory draws reported in the latest EIA data have supported this positioning, while resilient global demand metrics and steady economic growth in key import markets limit downside pressure. Market-implied odds for the $77–$84 band stand at 17.0%, reflecting scenarios of gradual demand moderation, though current trader consensus indicates limited scope for sharper declines absent unexpected macroeconomic shifts. Upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC policy statement and fresh inventory releases that could refine rate-path expectations and energy price trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Volume
$161,143End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders have assigned a 70.5% implied probability to June crude oil futures settling above $84 per barrel, driven primarily by persistent supply constraints from OPEC+ output cuts and recent geopolitical tensions in major producing regions. U.S. inventory draws reported in the latest EIA data have supported this positioning, while resilient global demand metrics and steady economic growth in key import markets limit downside pressure. Market-implied odds for the $77–$84 band stand at 17.0%, reflecting scenarios of gradual demand moderation, though current trader consensus indicates limited scope for sharper declines absent unexpected macroeconomic shifts. Upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC policy statement and fresh inventory releases that could refine rate-path expectations and energy price trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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