Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability for no AWS service disruption classified as "disrupted" by April 30, driven by the AWS Service Health Dashboard showing no new global operational issues in the past week. Ongoing impairments remain confined to Middle East regions—ME-SOUTH-1 (Bahrain) and ME-CENTRAL-1 (UAE)—stemming from physical infrastructure damage by drone strikes since March 1, affecting availability zones like mes1-az2 but mitigated via workload migration to unaffected areas such as US-East or Europe. AWS's multi-region redundancy and rapid failover capabilities have prevented escalation, with no elevated error rates or API failures in primary regions. Absent credible reports of cyber threats, capacity strains, or maintenance windows signaling risk before month-end, traders anticipate continued stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Apr 30, 2026
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Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability for no AWS service disruption classified as "disrupted" by April 30, driven by the AWS Service Health Dashboard showing no new global operational issues in the past week. Ongoing impairments remain confined to Middle East regions—ME-SOUTH-1 (Bahrain) and ME-CENTRAL-1 (UAE)—stemming from physical infrastructure damage by drone strikes since March 1, affecting availability zones like mes1-az2 but mitigated via workload migration to unaffected areas such as US-East or Europe. AWS's multi-region redundancy and rapid failover capabilities have prevented escalation, with no elevated error rates or API failures in primary regions. Absent credible reports of cyber threats, capacity strains, or maintenance windows signaling risk before month-end, traders anticipate continued stability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 12:59 PM ET
Volume
$7,915End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 12:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability for no AWS service disruption classified as "disrupted" by April 30, driven by the AWS Service Health Dashboard showing no new global operational issues in the past week. Ongoing impairments remain confined to Middle East regions—ME-SOUTH-1 (Bahrain) and ME-CENTRAL-1 (UAE)—stemming from physical infrastructure damage by drone strikes since March 1, affecting availability zones like mes1-az2 but mitigated via workload migration to unaffected areas such as US-East or Europe. AWS's multi-region redundancy and rapid failover capabilities have prevented escalation, with no elevated error rates or API failures in primary regions. Absent credible reports of cyber threats, capacity strains, or maintenance windows signaling risk before month-end, traders anticipate continued stability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count.
Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.”
This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.
If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).
Volume
$7,915End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 12:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 85.5% implied probability for no AWS service disruption classified as "disrupted" by April 30, driven by the AWS Service Health Dashboard showing no new global operational issues in the past week. Ongoing impairments remain confined to Middle East regions—ME-SOUTH-1 (Bahrain) and ME-CENTRAL-1 (UAE)—stemming from physical infrastructure damage by drone strikes since March 1, affecting availability zones like mes1-az2 but mitigated via workload migration to unaffected areas such as US-East or Europe. AWS's multi-region redundancy and rapid failover capabilities have prevented escalation, with no elevated error rates or API failures in primary regions. Absent credible reports of cyber threats, capacity strains, or maintenance windows signaling risk before month-end, traders anticipate continued stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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