Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 84.5% implied probability for Tesla launching robotaxis in California by June 30, 2025, driven by the absence of key regulatory approvals and no firm deployment timeline from Tesla. Despite Elon Musk's October "We, Robot" event unveiling the Cybercab and teasing unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) in California in 2025, the California DMV mandates rigorous testing permits for driverless operations, which Tesla has not secured for public robotaxi service. Recent FSD v13 updates demonstrate highway improvements but remain supervised, with historical delays and competitors like Waymo facing scaling hurdles reinforcing skepticism. Watch for DMV filings or Q4 earnings for potential catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$76,839 Vol.
$76,839 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
はい
$76,839 Vol.
$76,839 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ET
音量
$76,839終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$76,839終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 84.5% implied probability for Tesla launching robotaxis in California by June 30, 2025, driven by the absence of key regulatory approvals and no firm deployment timeline from Tesla. Despite Elon Musk's October "We, Robot" event unveiling the Cybercab and teasing unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) in California in 2025, the California DMV mandates rigorous testing permits for driverless operations, which Tesla has not secured for public robotaxi service. Recent FSD v13 updates demonstrate highway improvements but remain supervised, with historical delays and competitors like Waymo facing scaling hurdles reinforcing skepticism. Watch for DMV filings or Q4 earnings for potential catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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