Councilmember Zohran Mamdani's bill (Intro 903) to make NYC buses fare-free for five years faces insurmountable hurdles ahead of the March 31 deadline, driving trader consensus to 99.3% on "No." The NYC fiscal year 2025 budget, adopted last June without free bus funding, remains unchanged despite Mamdani's advocacy and recent MTA ridership data highlighting revenue losses from fare evasion. Mayor Adams and Council Speaker Adrienne Adams oppose the $630 million annual cost, with no committee hearings, floor votes, or alternative revenue plans advanced in recent weeks. Time constraints preclude passage, as legislative processes require multiple readings and mayor approval. Only an unprecedented budget surplus, emergency executive order, or MTA policy shift could alter odds, though none appear imminent.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$71,600 Vol.
$71,600 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$71,600 Vol.
$71,600 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority implements a policy under which the base local fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes operating within New York City (New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company) is $0 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered to have been implemented if it is actively in effect by the resolution date. The enactment of a policy without its implementation will not alone qualify. Policies which are blocked by legal or other means before they go into effect will similarly not qualify.
Limited pilots (e.g., a subset of routes or specific days), temporary “fare holidays,” or targeted free-fare programs (e.g., only youth, seniors, or low-income riders) do not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions such as express-bus fares, fares on specific lines (such as Airport lines) or other exclusions will still qualify as long as a general policy of $0 fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes is in effect.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority implements a policy under which the base local fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes operating within New York City (New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company) is $0 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered to have been implemented if it is actively in effect by the resolution date. The enactment of a policy without its implementation will not alone qualify. Policies which are blocked by legal or other means before they go into effect will similarly not qualify.
Limited pilots (e.g., a subset of routes or specific days), temporary “fare holidays,” or targeted free-fare programs (e.g., only youth, seniors, or low-income riders) do not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions such as express-bus fares, fares on specific lines (such as Airport lines) or other exclusions will still qualify as long as a general policy of $0 fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes is in effect.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority implements a policy under which the base local fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes operating within New York City (New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company) is $0 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered to have been implemented if it is actively in effect by the resolution date. The enactment of a policy without its implementation will not alone qualify. Policies which are blocked by legal or other means before they go into effect will similarly not qualify.
Limited pilots (e.g., a subset of routes or specific days), temporary “fare holidays,” or targeted free-fare programs (e.g., only youth, seniors, or low-income riders) do not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions such as express-bus fares, fares on specific lines (such as Airport lines) or other exclusions will still qualify as long as a general policy of $0 fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes is in effect.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority implements a policy under which the base local fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes operating within New York City (New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company) is $0 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered to have been implemented if it is actively in effect by the resolution date. The enactment of a policy without its implementation will not alone qualify. Policies which are blocked by legal or other means before they go into effect will similarly not qualify.
Limited pilots (e.g., a subset of routes or specific days), temporary “fare holidays,” or targeted free-fare programs (e.g., only youth, seniors, or low-income riders) do not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions such as express-bus fares, fares on specific lines (such as Airport lines) or other exclusions will still qualify as long as a general policy of $0 fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes is in effect.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 3, 2025, 4:38 PM ET
音量
$71,600終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 3, 2025, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority implements a policy under which the base local fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes operating within New York City (New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company) is $0 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered to have been implemented if it is actively in effect by the resolution date. The enactment of a policy without its implementation will not alone qualify. Policies which are blocked by legal or other means before they go into effect will similarly not qualify.
Limited pilots (e.g., a subset of routes or specific days), temporary “fare holidays,” or targeted free-fare programs (e.g., only youth, seniors, or low-income riders) do not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions such as express-bus fares, fares on specific lines (such as Airport lines) or other exclusions will still qualify as long as a general policy of $0 fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes is in effect.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority implements a policy under which the base local fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes operating within New York City (New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company) is $0 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered to have been implemented if it is actively in effect by the resolution date. The enactment of a policy without its implementation will not alone qualify. Policies which are blocked by legal or other means before they go into effect will similarly not qualify.
Limited pilots (e.g., a subset of routes or specific days), temporary “fare holidays,” or targeted free-fare programs (e.g., only youth, seniors, or low-income riders) do not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions such as express-bus fares, fares on specific lines (such as Airport lines) or other exclusions will still qualify as long as a general policy of $0 fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes is in effect.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority implements a policy under which the base local fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes operating within New York City (New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company) is $0 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered to have been implemented if it is actively in effect by the resolution date. The enactment of a policy without its implementation will not alone qualify. Policies which are blocked by legal or other means before they go into effect will similarly not qualify.
Limited pilots (e.g., a subset of routes or specific days), temporary “fare holidays,” or targeted free-fare programs (e.g., only youth, seniors, or low-income riders) do not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions such as express-bus fares, fares on specific lines (such as Airport lines) or other exclusions will still qualify as long as a general policy of $0 fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes is in effect.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority implements a policy under which the base local fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes operating within New York City (New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company) is $0 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered to have been implemented if it is actively in effect by the resolution date. The enactment of a policy without its implementation will not alone qualify. Policies which are blocked by legal or other means before they go into effect will similarly not qualify.
Limited pilots (e.g., a subset of routes or specific days), temporary “fare holidays,” or targeted free-fare programs (e.g., only youth, seniors, or low-income riders) do not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions such as express-bus fares, fares on specific lines (such as Airport lines) or other exclusions will still qualify as long as a general policy of $0 fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes is in effect.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$71,600終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 3, 2025, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Councilmember Zohran Mamdani's bill (Intro 903) to make NYC buses fare-free for five years faces insurmountable hurdles ahead of the March 31 deadline, driving trader consensus to 99.3% on "No." The NYC fiscal year 2025 budget, adopted last June without free bus funding, remains unchanged despite Mamdani's advocacy and recent MTA ridership data highlighting revenue losses from fare evasion. Mayor Adams and Council Speaker Adrienne Adams oppose the $630 million annual cost, with no committee hearings, floor votes, or alternative revenue plans advanced in recent weeks. Time constraints preclude passage, as legislative processes require multiple readings and mayor approval. Only an unprecedented budget surplus, emergency executive order, or MTA policy shift could alter odds, though none appear imminent.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問