Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.4% implied probability that Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani will not secure citywide free NYC buses by March 31, driven by the lack of legislative momentum in the New York State Assembly. Mamdani, a DSA-backed Queens representative, has advocated for fare-free MTA bus service amid ongoing pilots in low-income areas, but no sponsored bill has advanced through committees or gained bipartisan support amid fiscal constraints and MTA funding shortfalls. The state budget process concluded without such provisions, and Mayor Adams has voiced opposition to broad free-fare expansions due to revenue impacts. With the deadline approaching and no scheduled hearings or votes, structural barriers like supermajority requirements for budget alterations persist. Only an unprecedented late-session amendment or executive action could shift odds, though historical patterns make this improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$71,887 Vol.
$71,887 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$71,887 Vol.
$71,887 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority implements a policy under which the base local fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes operating within New York City (New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company) is $0 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered to have been implemented if it is actively in effect by the resolution date. The enactment of a policy without its implementation will not alone qualify. Policies which are blocked by legal or other means before they go into effect will similarly not qualify.
Limited pilots (e.g., a subset of routes or specific days), temporary “fare holidays,” or targeted free-fare programs (e.g., only youth, seniors, or low-income riders) do not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions such as express-bus fares, fares on specific lines (such as Airport lines) or other exclusions will still qualify as long as a general policy of $0 fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes is in effect.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.4% implied probability that Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani will not secure citywide free NYC buses by March 31, driven by the lack of legislative momentum in the New York State Assembly. Mamdani, a DSA-backed Queens representative, has advocated for fare-free MTA bus service amid ongoing pilots in low-income areas, but no sponsored bill has advanced through committees or gained bipartisan support amid fiscal constraints and MTA funding shortfalls. The state budget process concluded without such provisions, and Mayor Adams has voiced opposition to broad free-fare expansions due to revenue impacts. With the deadline approaching and no scheduled hearings or votes, structural barriers like supermajority requirements for budget alterations persist. Only an unprecedented late-session amendment or executive action could shift odds, though historical patterns make this improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority implements a policy under which the base local fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes operating within New York City (New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company) is $0 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered to have been implemented if it is actively in effect by the resolution date. The enactment of a policy without its implementation will not alone qualify. Policies which are blocked by legal or other means before they go into effect will similarly not qualify.
Limited pilots (e.g., a subset of routes or specific days), temporary “fare holidays,” or targeted free-fare programs (e.g., only youth, seniors, or low-income riders) do not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions such as express-bus fares, fares on specific lines (such as Airport lines) or other exclusions will still qualify as long as a general policy of $0 fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes is in effect.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority implements a policy under which the base local fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes operating within New York City (New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company) is $0 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered to have been implemented if it is actively in effect by the resolution date. The enactment of a policy without its implementation will not alone qualify. Policies which are blocked by legal or other means before they go into effect will similarly not qualify.
Limited pilots (e.g., a subset of routes or specific days), temporary “fare holidays,” or targeted free-fare programs (e.g., only youth, seniors, or low-income riders) do not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions such as express-bus fares, fares on specific lines (such as Airport lines) or other exclusions will still qualify as long as a general policy of $0 fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes is in effect.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 3, 2025, 4:38 PM ET
音量
$71,887終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 3, 2025, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority implements a policy under which the base local fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes operating within New York City (New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company) is $0 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered to have been implemented if it is actively in effect by the resolution date. The enactment of a policy without its implementation will not alone qualify. Policies which are blocked by legal or other means before they go into effect will similarly not qualify.
Limited pilots (e.g., a subset of routes or specific days), temporary “fare holidays,” or targeted free-fare programs (e.g., only youth, seniors, or low-income riders) do not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions such as express-bus fares, fares on specific lines (such as Airport lines) or other exclusions will still qualify as long as a general policy of $0 fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes is in effect.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.4% implied probability that Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani will not secure citywide free NYC buses by March 31, driven by the lack of legislative momentum in the New York State Assembly. Mamdani, a DSA-backed Queens representative, has advocated for fare-free MTA bus service amid ongoing pilots in low-income areas, but no sponsored bill has advanced through committees or gained bipartisan support amid fiscal constraints and MTA funding shortfalls. The state budget process concluded without such provisions, and Mayor Adams has voiced opposition to broad free-fare expansions due to revenue impacts. With the deadline approaching and no scheduled hearings or votes, structural barriers like supermajority requirements for budget alterations persist. Only an unprecedented late-session amendment or executive action could shift odds, though historical patterns make this improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority implements a policy under which the base local fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes operating within New York City (New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company) is $0 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered to have been implemented if it is actively in effect by the resolution date. The enactment of a policy without its implementation will not alone qualify. Policies which are blocked by legal or other means before they go into effect will similarly not qualify.
Limited pilots (e.g., a subset of routes or specific days), temporary “fare holidays,” or targeted free-fare programs (e.g., only youth, seniors, or low-income riders) do not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions such as express-bus fares, fares on specific lines (such as Airport lines) or other exclusions will still qualify as long as a general policy of $0 fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes is in effect.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. The New York City Metropolitan Transportation Authority implements a policy under which the base local fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes operating within New York City (New York City Transit and MTA Bus Company) is $0 by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The policy will be considered to have been implemented if it is actively in effect by the resolution date. The enactment of a policy without its implementation will not alone qualify. Policies which are blocked by legal or other means before they go into effect will similarly not qualify.
Limited pilots (e.g., a subset of routes or specific days), temporary “fare holidays,” or targeted free-fare programs (e.g., only youth, seniors, or low-income riders) do not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions such as express-bus fares, fares on specific lines (such as Airport lines) or other exclusions will still qualify as long as a general policy of $0 fare for regularly scheduled MTA bus routes is in effect.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$71,887終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 3, 2025, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.4% implied probability that Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani will not secure citywide free NYC buses by March 31, driven by the lack of legislative momentum in the New York State Assembly. Mamdani, a DSA-backed Queens representative, has advocated for fare-free MTA bus service amid ongoing pilots in low-income areas, but no sponsored bill has advanced through committees or gained bipartisan support amid fiscal constraints and MTA funding shortfalls. The state budget process concluded without such provisions, and Mayor Adams has voiced opposition to broad free-fare expansions due to revenue impacts. With the deadline approaching and no scheduled hearings or votes, structural barriers like supermajority requirements for budget alterations persist. Only an unprecedented late-session amendment or executive action could shift odds, though historical patterns make this improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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