Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, driven by recent de-escalatory diplomatic signals and persistent absence of invasion precursors like amphibious force buildups or large-scale mobilization. Xi Jinping's March 30 invitation to Taiwan's opposition leader for "peace" talks ahead of a potential Trump summit underscores Beijing's preference for political pressure over military action. U.S. intelligence assessments confirm no current plans for a 2027 assault, amid routine PLA gray-zone activities—fluctuating warplane incursions and naval patrols that resumed after a mid-March lull but show no escalation. Taiwan's bolstered defenses, extended Han Kuang exercises, and U.S. arms support heighten deterrence barriers, including economic costs and PLA inexperience in contested amphibious operations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$44,581 Vol.
$44,581 Vol.
2027/06/30
$44,581 Vol.
$44,581 Vol.
2027/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, driven by recent de-escalatory diplomatic signals and persistent absence of invasion precursors like amphibious force buildups or large-scale mobilization. Xi Jinping's March 30 invitation to Taiwan's opposition leader for "peace" talks ahead of a potential Trump summit underscores Beijing's preference for political pressure over military action. U.S. intelligence assessments confirm no current plans for a 2027 assault, amid routine PLA gray-zone activities—fluctuating warplane incursions and naval patrols that resumed after a mid-March lull but show no escalation. Taiwan's bolstered defenses, extended Han Kuang exercises, and U.S. arms support heighten deterrence barriers, including economic costs and PLA inexperience in contested amphibious operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
音量
$44,581終了日
2027/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, driven by recent de-escalatory diplomatic signals and persistent absence of invasion precursors like amphibious force buildups or large-scale mobilization. Xi Jinping's March 30 invitation to Taiwan's opposition leader for "peace" talks ahead of a potential Trump summit underscores Beijing's preference for political pressure over military action. U.S. intelligence assessments confirm no current plans for a 2027 assault, amid routine PLA gray-zone activities—fluctuating warplane incursions and naval patrols that resumed after a mid-March lull but show no escalation. Taiwan's bolstered defenses, extended Han Kuang exercises, and U.S. arms support heighten deterrence barriers, including economic costs and PLA inexperience in contested amphibious operations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$49,581終了日
2027/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.5% for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, driven by recent de-escalatory diplomatic signals and persistent absence of invasion precursors like amphibious force buildups or large-scale mobilization. Xi Jinping's March 30 invitation to Taiwan's opposition leader for "peace" talks ahead of a potential Trump summit underscores Beijing's preference for political pressure over military action. U.S. intelligence assessments confirm no current plans for a 2027 assault, amid routine PLA gray-zone activities—fluctuating warplane incursions and naval patrols that resumed after a mid-March lull but show no escalation. Taiwan's bolstered defenses, extended Han Kuang exercises, and U.S. arms support heighten deterrence barriers, including economic costs and PLA inexperience in contested amphibious operations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問