Traders' 84% implied probability against a CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition breaking before 2027 stems from polling trends favoring a stable black-red partnership after the February 23, 2025 snap election, triggered by Chancellor Scholz's November 2024 dismissal of FDP Finance Minister Lindner and subsequent Bundestag no-confidence loss. CDU/CSU leads polls at around 31% under Friedrich Merz, who has ruled out AfD cooperation despite its 20% support, positioning SPD (15%) as the key junior partner for a Bundestag majority amid fragmentation. Historical grand coalitions under Angela Merkel completed full terms despite policy disputes, reinforcing trader consensus on durability. No recent polling shifts or campaign shocks have altered this view, though coalition negotiations post-election could introduce risks if arithmetic forces compromises.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$31,996 Vol.
$31,996 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
はい
$31,996 Vol.
$31,996 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.Traders' 84% implied probability against a CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition breaking before 2027 stems from polling trends favoring a stable black-red partnership after the February 23, 2025 snap election, triggered by Chancellor Scholz's November 2024 dismissal of FDP Finance Minister Lindner and subsequent Bundestag no-confidence loss. CDU/CSU leads polls at around 31% under Friedrich Merz, who has ruled out AfD cooperation despite its 20% support, positioning SPD (15%) as the key junior partner for a Bundestag majority amid fragmentation. Historical grand coalitions under Angela Merkel completed full terms despite policy disputes, reinforcing trader consensus on durability. No recent polling shifts or campaign shocks have altered this view, though coalition negotiations post-election could introduce risks if arithmetic forces compromises.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ET
音量
$31,996終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.Traders' 84% implied probability against a CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition breaking before 2027 stems from polling trends favoring a stable black-red partnership after the February 23, 2025 snap election, triggered by Chancellor Scholz's November 2024 dismissal of FDP Finance Minister Lindner and subsequent Bundestag no-confidence loss. CDU/CSU leads polls at around 31% under Friedrich Merz, who has ruled out AfD cooperation despite its 20% support, positioning SPD (15%) as the key junior partner for a Bundestag majority amid fragmentation. Historical grand coalitions under Angela Merkel completed full terms despite policy disputes, reinforcing trader consensus on durability. No recent polling shifts or campaign shocks have altered this view, though coalition negotiations post-election could introduce risks if arithmetic forces compromises.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
音量
$31,996終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' 84% implied probability against a CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition breaking before 2027 stems from polling trends favoring a stable black-red partnership after the February 23, 2025 snap election, triggered by Chancellor Scholz's November 2024 dismissal of FDP Finance Minister Lindner and subsequent Bundestag no-confidence loss. CDU/CSU leads polls at around 31% under Friedrich Merz, who has ruled out AfD cooperation despite its 20% support, positioning SPD (15%) as the key junior partner for a Bundestag majority amid fragmentation. Historical grand coalitions under Angela Merkel completed full terms despite policy disputes, reinforcing trader consensus on durability. No recent polling shifts or campaign shocks have altered this view, though coalition negotiations post-election could introduce risks if arithmetic forces compromises.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問