Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 90.5% implied probability to Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by the company's unbroken 18-year annual iPhone launch cadence—every September since 2007—and fresh supply chain leaks from analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max production ramp-up for a fall debut with the A20 Pro chip and in-house C2 5G modem. Recent reports highlight design tweaks like new colors and a smaller Dynamic Island, solidifying expectations amid a rumored foldable iPhone companion launch. While unprecedented, a full skip remains improbable; realistic challenges include major supply disruptions, economic downturns, or strategic delays pushing the base model to 2027, though Pro models would still satisfy resolution criteria. Watch September event proximity for final catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$81,389 Vol.
$81,389 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$81,389 Vol.
$81,389 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 90.5% implied probability to Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by the company's unbroken 18-year annual iPhone launch cadence—every September since 2007—and fresh supply chain leaks from analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max production ramp-up for a fall debut with the A20 Pro chip and in-house C2 5G modem. Recent reports highlight design tweaks like new colors and a smaller Dynamic Island, solidifying expectations amid a rumored foldable iPhone companion launch. While unprecedented, a full skip remains improbable; realistic challenges include major supply disruptions, economic downturns, or strategic delays pushing the base model to 2027, though Pro models would still satisfy resolution criteria. Watch September event proximity for final catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
音量
$81,389終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 90.5% implied probability to Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by the company's unbroken 18-year annual iPhone launch cadence—every September since 2007—and fresh supply chain leaks from analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max production ramp-up for a fall debut with the A20 Pro chip and in-house C2 5G modem. Recent reports highlight design tweaks like new colors and a smaller Dynamic Island, solidifying expectations amid a rumored foldable iPhone companion launch. While unprecedented, a full skip remains improbable; realistic challenges include major supply disruptions, economic downturns, or strategic delays pushing the base model to 2027, though Pro models would still satisfy resolution criteria. Watch September event proximity for final catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$81,389終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives a 90.5% implied probability to Apple releasing the iPhone 18 in 2026, driven by the company's unbroken 18-year annual iPhone launch cadence—every September since 2007—and fresh supply chain leaks from analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo confirming iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max production ramp-up for a fall debut with the A20 Pro chip and in-house C2 5G modem. Recent reports highlight design tweaks like new colors and a smaller Dynamic Island, solidifying expectations amid a rumored foldable iPhone companion launch. While unprecedented, a full skip remains improbable; realistic challenges include major supply disruptions, economic downturns, or strategic delays pushing the base model to 2027, though Pro models would still satisfy resolution criteria. Watch September event proximity for final catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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