Israel's targeted airstrikes on October 26 against Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage represent the most recent direct military action, with no other countries—including the US, which provided defensive aid but no offensive strikes—engaging since. Diplomatic rhetoric from Washington and Jerusalem stresses calibrated de-escalation to avoid wider war, amid ongoing proxy tensions via Hezbollah and Houthi attacks. The incoming Trump administration, set for inauguration on January 20, signals a tougher Iran policy including maximum pressure sanctions, potentially heightening risks of escalation if Tehran provokes further before the March 31 deadline. Traders monitor Iranian nuclear advancements, regional ceasefires, and UN diplomacy for catalysts that could prompt additional interventions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$10,060,516 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
UAE
6%
サウジアラビア
6%
バーレーン
4%
クウェート
3%
カタール
2%
英国
2%
いずれかのEU加盟国
2%
トルコ
1%
ヨルダン
1%
フランス
1%
ドイツ
<1%
オマーン
<1%
カナダ
<1%
$10,060,516 Vol.
UAE
$2,499,432 Vol.
6%
サウジアラビア
$1,980,748 Vol.
6%
バーレーン
$378,885 Vol.
4%
クウェート
$198,057 Vol.
3%
カタール
$912,783 Vol.
2%
英国
$925,278 Vol.
2%
いずれかのEU加盟国
$438,309 Vol.
2%
トルコ
$465,382 Vol.
1%
ヨルダン
$182,815 Vol.
1%
フランス
$718,665 Vol.
1%
ドイツ
$898,883 Vol.
<1%
オマーン
$127,949 Vol.
<1%
カナダ
$333,347 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's targeted airstrikes on October 26 against Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage represent the most recent direct military action, with no other countries—including the US, which provided defensive aid but no offensive strikes—engaging since. Diplomatic rhetoric from Washington and Jerusalem stresses calibrated de-escalation to avoid wider war, amid ongoing proxy tensions via Hezbollah and Houthi attacks. The incoming Trump administration, set for inauguration on January 20, signals a tougher Iran policy including maximum pressure sanctions, potentially heightening risks of escalation if Tehran provokes further before the March 31 deadline. Traders monitor Iranian nuclear advancements, regional ceasefires, and UN diplomacy for catalysts that could prompt additional interventions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
音量
$10,060,516終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's targeted airstrikes on October 26 against Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage represent the most recent direct military action, with no other countries—including the US, which provided defensive aid but no offensive strikes—engaging since. Diplomatic rhetoric from Washington and Jerusalem stresses calibrated de-escalation to avoid wider war, amid ongoing proxy tensions via Hezbollah and Houthi attacks. The incoming Trump administration, set for inauguration on January 20, signals a tougher Iran policy including maximum pressure sanctions, potentially heightening risks of escalation if Tehran provokes further before the March 31 deadline. Traders monitor Iranian nuclear advancements, regional ceasefires, and UN diplomacy for catalysts that could prompt additional interventions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$10,060,516終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's targeted airstrikes on October 26 against Iranian military sites in response to Tehran's October 1 missile barrage represent the most recent direct military action, with no other countries—including the US, which provided defensive aid but no offensive strikes—engaging since. Diplomatic rhetoric from Washington and Jerusalem stresses calibrated de-escalation to avoid wider war, amid ongoing proxy tensions via Hezbollah and Houthi attacks. The incoming Trump administration, set for inauguration on January 20, signals a tougher Iran policy including maximum pressure sanctions, potentially heightening risks of escalation if Tehran provokes further before the March 31 deadline. Traders monitor Iranian nuclear advancements, regional ceasefires, and UN diplomacy for catalysts that could prompt additional interventions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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