Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74% implied probability that 2026 ranks first or second among the hottest years on record, driven by its exceptionally warm start despite a fading weak La Niña. Copernicus and NOAA data show January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest on record globally, with the December 2025–March 2026 period setting new benchmarks for warmth amid ongoing anthropogenic forcing. The 11 prior years (2015–2025) formed the hottest streak, with 2024 confirmed as the warmest and 2025 second or third by NASA and WMO analyses. Transition to ENSO-neutral conditions (55–90% likely through mid-2026 per NOAA and IRI forecasts) or emerging El Niño risks could amplify summer–fall anomalies, though model ensembles highlight uncertainty in exact rankings pending full-year data. Upcoming March–April bulletins from NOAA and Copernicus will refine trajectories.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2 47%
1 28%
4 14%
3 9.3%
$2,415,634 Vol.
$2,415,634 Vol.
2026/12/31
1
28%
2
47%
3
9%
4
14%
5
1%
6位以下
2%
2 47%
1 28%
4 14%
3 9.3%
$2,415,634 Vol.
$2,415,634 Vol.
2026/12/31
1
$336,564 Vol.
28%
2
$247,566 Vol.
47%
3
$371,363 Vol.
9%
4
$362,136 Vol.
14%
5
$663,681 Vol.
1%
6位以下
$434,323 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74% implied probability that 2026 ranks first or second among the hottest years on record, driven by its exceptionally warm start despite a fading weak La Niña. Copernicus and NOAA data show January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest on record globally, with the December 2025–March 2026 period setting new benchmarks for warmth amid ongoing anthropogenic forcing. The 11 prior years (2015–2025) formed the hottest streak, with 2024 confirmed as the warmest and 2025 second or third by NASA and WMO analyses. Transition to ENSO-neutral conditions (55–90% likely through mid-2026 per NOAA and IRI forecasts) or emerging El Niño risks could amplify summer–fall anomalies, though model ensembles highlight uncertainty in exact rankings pending full-year data. Upcoming March–April bulletins from NOAA and Copernicus will refine trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
音量
$2,415,634終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74% implied probability that 2026 ranks first or second among the hottest years on record, driven by its exceptionally warm start despite a fading weak La Niña. Copernicus and NOAA data show January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest on record globally, with the December 2025–March 2026 period setting new benchmarks for warmth amid ongoing anthropogenic forcing. The 11 prior years (2015–2025) formed the hottest streak, with 2024 confirmed as the warmest and 2025 second or third by NASA and WMO analyses. Transition to ENSO-neutral conditions (55–90% likely through mid-2026 per NOAA and IRI forecasts) or emerging El Niño risks could amplify summer–fall anomalies, though model ensembles highlight uncertainty in exact rankings pending full-year data. Upcoming March–April bulletins from NOAA and Copernicus will refine trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$2,415,634終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 74% implied probability that 2026 ranks first or second among the hottest years on record, driven by its exceptionally warm start despite a fading weak La Niña. Copernicus and NOAA data show January and February 2026 as the fifth-warmest on record globally, with the December 2025–March 2026 period setting new benchmarks for warmth amid ongoing anthropogenic forcing. The 11 prior years (2015–2025) formed the hottest streak, with 2024 confirmed as the warmest and 2025 second or third by NASA and WMO analyses. Transition to ENSO-neutral conditions (55–90% likely through mid-2026 per NOAA and IRI forecasts) or emerging El Niño risks could amplify summer–fall anomalies, though model ensembles highlight uncertainty in exact rankings pending full-year data. Upcoming March–April bulletins from NOAA and Copernicus will refine trajectories.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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