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2月28日までに、米国/イスラエルはイランで何を目標にしますか?

Market icon

2月28日までに、米国/イスラエルはイランで何を目標にしますか?

$5,385,395 Vol.

Feb 28, 2026
Polymarket

$5,385,395 Vol.

Polymarket

$5,031,421 Vol.

はい

テヘラン

$242,652 Vol.

はい

石油/ガス

$111,322 Vol.

いいえ

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against the municipality of Tehran or any target within the municipality, between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market, even if it enters Tehran’s airspace and its wreckage lands in Tehran.

The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S., Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
音量
$5,385,395
終了日
Feb 28, 2026
マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:24 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against the municipality of Tehran or any target within the municipality, between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by U.S. or Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market, even if it enters Tehran’s airspace and its wreckage lands in Tehran. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the U.S., Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.

提案された結果: はい

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: はい

外部リンクに注意してください。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2月28日までに、米国/イスラエルはイランで何を目標にしますか?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "核" at 100%, followed by "テヘラン" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2月28日までに、米国/イスラエルはイランで何を目標にしますか?" has generated $5.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2月28日までに、米国/イスラエルはイランで何を目標にしますか?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2月28日までに、米国/イスラエルはイランで何を目標にしますか?" is "核" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "テヘラン" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2月28日までに、米国/イスラエルはイランで何を目標にしますか?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.