Trader consensus on the 2026 US trade deficit clusters tightly around 800–900B and 900B–1T, reflecting volatile early-year data amid persistent tariff effects from the Trump administration's April 2025 implementation. February's goods and services gap widened modestly to $57.3 billion—less than forecast—as imports and exports both rose, but year-to-date through February marked a 55% improvement over 2025's pace, following 2025's near-record $901.5 billion annual deficit that barely dipped from 2024. Strong US consumer spending and services surpluses sustain high imports, offsetting tariff-driven goods reductions and supply chain shifts like China's pivot to Vietnam, while potential retaliation and economic growth keep outcomes uncertain. Monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis releases and further tariff negotiations could tip probabilities toward narrower or wider bands.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$17,423 Vol.
$17,423 Vol.
2027/02/28
5,000億ドル未満
9%
5000億〜6000億
6%
6000億〜7000億
8%
7,000億〜8,000億ドル
13%
8000億～9000億
33%
9,000億〜1兆
26%
1兆〜1.1兆
12%
1.1兆ドル以上
13%
$17,423 Vol.
$17,423 Vol.
2027/02/28
5,000億ドル未満
$16,386 Vol.
9%
5000億〜6000億
$0 Vol.
6%
6000億〜7000億
$0 Vol.
8%
7,000億〜8,000億ドル
$0 Vol.
13%
8000億～9000億
$0 Vol.
33%
9,000億〜1兆
$635 Vol.
26%
1兆〜1.1兆
$0 Vol.
12%
1.1兆ドル以上
$402 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on the 2026 US trade deficit clusters tightly around 800–900B and 900B–1T, reflecting volatile early-year data amid persistent tariff effects from the Trump administration's April 2025 implementation. February's goods and services gap widened modestly to $57.3 billion—less than forecast—as imports and exports both rose, but year-to-date through February marked a 55% improvement over 2025's pace, following 2025's near-record $901.5 billion annual deficit that barely dipped from 2024. Strong US consumer spending and services surpluses sustain high imports, offsetting tariff-driven goods reductions and supply chain shifts like China's pivot to Vietnam, while potential retaliation and economic growth keep outcomes uncertain. Monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis releases and further tariff negotiations could tip probabilities toward narrower or wider bands.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
音量
$17,423終了日
2027/02/28マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on the 2026 US trade deficit clusters tightly around 800–900B and 900B–1T, reflecting volatile early-year data amid persistent tariff effects from the Trump administration's April 2025 implementation. February's goods and services gap widened modestly to $57.3 billion—less than forecast—as imports and exports both rose, but year-to-date through February marked a 55% improvement over 2025's pace, following 2025's near-record $901.5 billion annual deficit that barely dipped from 2024. Strong US consumer spending and services surpluses sustain high imports, offsetting tariff-driven goods reductions and supply chain shifts like China's pivot to Vietnam, while potential retaliation and economic growth keep outcomes uncertain. Monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis releases and further tariff negotiations could tip probabilities toward narrower or wider bands.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
音量
$17,423終了日
2027/02/28マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the 2026 US trade deficit clusters tightly around 800–900B and 900B–1T, reflecting volatile early-year data amid persistent tariff effects from the Trump administration's April 2025 implementation. February's goods and services gap widened modestly to $57.3 billion—less than forecast—as imports and exports both rose, but year-to-date through February marked a 55% improvement over 2025's pace, following 2025's near-record $901.5 billion annual deficit that barely dipped from 2024. Strong US consumer spending and services surpluses sustain high imports, offsetting tariff-driven goods reductions and supply chain shifts like China's pivot to Vietnam, while potential retaliation and economic growth keep outcomes uncertain. Monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis releases and further tariff negotiations could tip probabilities toward narrower or wider bands.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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