Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. evacuation of the Jerusalem embassy by March 31, with 98.5% implied probability on "No," driven by the absence of any official State Department orders, security alerts, or credible threats warranting such a move. Jerusalem remains operationally stable amid broader Middle East tensions, including Israel-Hamas hostilities and northern border exchanges, with U.S. advisories at Level 2 for most of Israel—urging caution but not departure. Historical precedents for embassy evacuations, like Kabul or Khartoum, involved imminent collapse, absent here. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden escalations, such as Hezbollah breakthroughs or Iranian strikes nearing the capital, though current military postures make these unlikely before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$41,238 Vol.
$41,238 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$41,238 Vol.
$41,238 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
マーケット開始日： Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
音量
$41,238終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
音量
$41,238終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. evacuation of the Jerusalem embassy by March 31, with 98.5% implied probability on "No," driven by the absence of any official State Department orders, security alerts, or credible threats warranting such a move. Jerusalem remains operationally stable amid broader Middle East tensions, including Israel-Hamas hostilities and northern border exchanges, with U.S. advisories at Level 2 for most of Israel—urging caution but not departure. Historical precedents for embassy evacuations, like Kabul or Khartoum, involved imminent collapse, absent here. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden escalations, such as Hezbollah breakthroughs or Iranian strikes nearing the capital, though current military postures make these unlikely before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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