Traders' near-unanimous 96% consensus against a U.S. evacuation of the Jerusalem embassy by March 31 stems from the complete absence of any official State Department announcements, travel advisories mandating withdrawal, or credible threat assessments warranting such action. The embassy continues normal operations amid ongoing Israel-Hamas tensions, with Jerusalem's security posture stable relative to regional hotspots like Gaza or the West Bank. Historical precedent reinforces this, as the 2018 relocation solidified U.S. diplomatic commitment there, and evacuations remain rare without imminent warzone risks. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden escalations, such as direct Hezbollah strikes on the capital or a broader Iran conflict, prompting rapid agency decisions—though no such indicators exist currently.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$33,852 Vol.
$33,852 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$33,852 Vol.
$33,852 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
マーケット開始日： Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
音量
$33,852終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Israel, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
音量
$33,852終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' near-unanimous 96% consensus against a U.S. evacuation of the Jerusalem embassy by March 31 stems from the complete absence of any official State Department announcements, travel advisories mandating withdrawal, or credible threat assessments warranting such action. The embassy continues normal operations amid ongoing Israel-Hamas tensions, with Jerusalem's security posture stable relative to regional hotspots like Gaza or the West Bank. Historical precedent reinforces this, as the 2018 relocation solidified U.S. diplomatic commitment there, and evacuations remain rare without imminent warzone risks. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden escalations, such as direct Hezbollah strikes on the capital or a broader Iran conflict, prompting rapid agency decisions—though no such indicators exist currently.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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