Josée Massi's commanding 99.9% implied probability in the Toulon mayoral election reflects traders' consensus on her insurmountable lead as the incumbent Les Républicains candidate succeeding long-serving mayor Hubert Falco, who endorsed her amid strong local polling and party unity following the 2020 municipal victory. Recent developments, including Massi's solid performance in council leadership and minimal competition from challengers like Laure Lavalette (left-wing) or Jean-Michel Ghiotto (RN), have solidified this view, with historical base rates favoring continuity in Var department strongholds. Realistic challenges remain slim but could arise from a late RN surge, personal scandal, or voter turnout shifts in the 2026 vote, though current evidence shows negligible momentum elsewhere.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日ジョゼ・マッシ 99.6%
ラウレ・ラヴァレット <1%
ジャン＝ミシェル・ギオット <1%
マガリ・ブルネル <1%
$139,581 Vol.
$139,581 Vol.
Mar 22, 2026
ジョゼ・マッシ
100%
ラウレ・ラヴァレット
1%
ジャン＝ミシェル・ギオット
1%
マガリ・ブルネル
<1%
イザリーヌ・コルニル
<1%
ミシェル・ボヌス
<1%
ジョゼ・マッシ 99.6%
ラウレ・ラヴァレット <1%
ジャン＝ミシェル・ギオット <1%
マガリ・ブルネル <1%
$139,581 Vol.
$139,581 Vol.
Mar 22, 2026
ジョゼ・マッシ
$49,754 Vol.
100%
ラウレ・ラヴァレット
$48,626 Vol.
1%
ジャン＝ミシェル・ギオット
$16,343 Vol.
1%
マガリ・ブルネル
$0 Vol.
<1%
イザリーヌ・コルニル
$24,857 Vol.
<1%
ミシェル・ボヌス
$0 Vol.
<1%
Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
マーケット開始日： Mar 3, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
音量
$139,581終了日
Mar 22, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 3, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Municipal elections to elect the municipal council of Toulon are scheduled to take place on March 15, 2026 (with a runoff on March 22 if necessary); the elected councillors will then choose the mayor.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next elected Mayor of Toulon.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
音量
$139,581終了日
Mar 22, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 3, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Josée Massi's commanding 99.9% implied probability in the Toulon mayoral election reflects traders' consensus on her insurmountable lead as the incumbent Les Républicains candidate succeeding long-serving mayor Hubert Falco, who endorsed her amid strong local polling and party unity following the 2020 municipal victory. Recent developments, including Massi's solid performance in council leadership and minimal competition from challengers like Laure Lavalette (left-wing) or Jean-Michel Ghiotto (RN), have solidified this view, with historical base rates favoring continuity in Var department strongholds. Realistic challenges remain slim but could arise from a late RN surge, personal scandal, or voter turnout shifts in the 2026 vote, though current evidence shows negligible momentum elsewhere.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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