Recent Texas U.S. Senate primaries on March 3 advanced the race to a competitive general election matchup, with Democrat James Talarico securing the nomination by defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett, while Republicans head to a May runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, who led most pre-primary polls. Post-primary surveys, including Impact Research (March 17) showing Talarico at 44% over Paxton (43%) and Quantus Insights (March 21-23) favoring Paxton in the GOP runoff, reflect tight contests amid undecided voters. Trader consensus prices Republicans at 55% implied probability—slightly ahead of Democrats at 43.5%—due to Texas's consistent GOP lean in Senate races, Cornyn's incumbency and fundraising edge, Paxton's strong conservative base turnout potential, and historical patterns favoring the majority party in low-turnout midterms, though high Latino and suburban mobilization could tip battlegrounds. A Trump endorsement tease adds uncertainty ahead of the runoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$158,181 Vol.
$158,181 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
55%
民主党
44%
$158,181 Vol.
$158,181 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$87,775 Vol.
55%
民主党
$70,407 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent Texas U.S. Senate primaries on March 3 advanced the race to a competitive general election matchup, with Democrat James Talarico securing the nomination by defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett, while Republicans head to a May runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, who led most pre-primary polls. Post-primary surveys, including Impact Research (March 17) showing Talarico at 44% over Paxton (43%) and Quantus Insights (March 21-23) favoring Paxton in the GOP runoff, reflect tight contests amid undecided voters. Trader consensus prices Republicans at 55% implied probability—slightly ahead of Democrats at 43.5%—due to Texas's consistent GOP lean in Senate races, Cornyn's incumbency and fundraising edge, Paxton's strong conservative base turnout potential, and historical patterns favoring the majority party in low-turnout midterms, though high Latino and suburban mobilization could tip battlegrounds. A Trump endorsement tease adds uncertainty ahead of the runoff.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
音量
$158,181終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent Texas U.S. Senate primaries on March 3 advanced the race to a competitive general election matchup, with Democrat James Talarico securing the nomination by defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett, while Republicans head to a May runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, who led most pre-primary polls. Post-primary surveys, including Impact Research (March 17) showing Talarico at 44% over Paxton (43%) and Quantus Insights (March 21-23) favoring Paxton in the GOP runoff, reflect tight contests amid undecided voters. Trader consensus prices Republicans at 55% implied probability—slightly ahead of Democrats at 43.5%—due to Texas's consistent GOP lean in Senate races, Cornyn's incumbency and fundraising edge, Paxton's strong conservative base turnout potential, and historical patterns favoring the majority party in low-turnout midterms, though high Latino and suburban mobilization could tip battlegrounds. A Trump endorsement tease adds uncertainty ahead of the runoff.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$158,181終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Texas U.S. Senate primaries on March 3 advanced the race to a competitive general election matchup, with Democrat James Talarico securing the nomination by defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett, while Republicans head to a May runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, who led most pre-primary polls. Post-primary surveys, including Impact Research (March 17) showing Talarico at 44% over Paxton (43%) and Quantus Insights (March 21-23) favoring Paxton in the GOP runoff, reflect tight contests amid undecided voters. Trader consensus prices Republicans at 55% implied probability—slightly ahead of Democrats at 43.5%—due to Texas's consistent GOP lean in Senate races, Cornyn's incumbency and fundraising edge, Paxton's strong conservative base turnout potential, and historical patterns favoring the majority party in low-turnout midterms, though high Latino and suburban mobilization could tip battlegrounds. A Trump endorsement tease adds uncertainty ahead of the runoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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