James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination in the March 3 Texas Senate primary with 52% of the vote, defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett amid record Democratic turnout, while incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (42%) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (41%) advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff after no candidate reached a majority. Recent polls reflect a closely contested general election matchup, with Talarico holding narrow leads in Democratic-sponsored surveys like Public Policy Polling (47-45% vs. Paxton, 44-43% vs. Cornyn) but trailing slightly in University of Houston polling (Paxton 46-44%, Cornyn 44-43%). Trader consensus prices Republicans at 55% implied probability, driven by Texas's GOP incumbency edge, historical base rates favoring the party in statewide races, and Paxton's recent runoff polling lead (46-41% average) despite potential general election vulnerabilities for the more conservative challenger. The runoff outcome remains pivotal ahead of November balloting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$158,181 Vol.
$158,181 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
55%
民主党
44%
$158,181 Vol.
$158,181 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$87,775 Vol.
55%
民主党
$70,407 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination in the March 3 Texas Senate primary with 52% of the vote, defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett amid record Democratic turnout, while incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (42%) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (41%) advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff after no candidate reached a majority. Recent polls reflect a closely contested general election matchup, with Talarico holding narrow leads in Democratic-sponsored surveys like Public Policy Polling (47-45% vs. Paxton, 44-43% vs. Cornyn) but trailing slightly in University of Houston polling (Paxton 46-44%, Cornyn 44-43%). Trader consensus prices Republicans at 55% implied probability, driven by Texas's GOP incumbency edge, historical base rates favoring the party in statewide races, and Paxton's recent runoff polling lead (46-41% average) despite potential general election vulnerabilities for the more conservative challenger. The runoff outcome remains pivotal ahead of November balloting.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
音量
$158,181終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination in the March 3 Texas Senate primary with 52% of the vote, defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett amid record Democratic turnout, while incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (42%) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (41%) advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff after no candidate reached a majority. Recent polls reflect a closely contested general election matchup, with Talarico holding narrow leads in Democratic-sponsored surveys like Public Policy Polling (47-45% vs. Paxton, 44-43% vs. Cornyn) but trailing slightly in University of Houston polling (Paxton 46-44%, Cornyn 44-43%). Trader consensus prices Republicans at 55% implied probability, driven by Texas's GOP incumbency edge, historical base rates favoring the party in statewide races, and Paxton's recent runoff polling lead (46-41% average) despite potential general election vulnerabilities for the more conservative challenger. The runoff outcome remains pivotal ahead of November balloting.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$158,181終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...James Talarico secured the Democratic nomination in the March 3 Texas Senate primary with 52% of the vote, defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett amid record Democratic turnout, while incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (42%) and Attorney General Ken Paxton (41%) advanced to a May 26 Republican runoff after no candidate reached a majority. Recent polls reflect a closely contested general election matchup, with Talarico holding narrow leads in Democratic-sponsored surveys like Public Policy Polling (47-45% vs. Paxton, 44-43% vs. Cornyn) but trailing slightly in University of Houston polling (Paxton 46-44%, Cornyn 44-43%). Trader consensus prices Republicans at 55% implied probability, driven by Texas's GOP incumbency edge, historical base rates favoring the party in statewide races, and Paxton's recent runoff polling lead (46-41% average) despite potential general election vulnerabilities for the more conservative challenger. The runoff outcome remains pivotal ahead of November balloting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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