Incumbent Republican Guy Reschenthaler holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's safely Republican 14th Congressional District House race, where trader consensus prices GOP victory at 92.5% based on strong district fundamentals including a +28 Republican partisan lean, consistent Trump landslides in recent presidential cycles, and Reschenthaler's unchallenged primary dominance. No major developments in the past 30 days have altered this outlook, with campaign finance reports highlighting the incumbent's fundraising edge over Democratic challenger Jim Grimm, a retired Marine facing limited resources and name recognition. Scenarios challenging this include a late scandal, health issue, or unexpected Democratic turnout surge on November 5 election night, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest low upset risk.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
93%
民主党
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$246 Vol.
93%
民主党
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Guy Reschenthaler holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's safely Republican 14th Congressional District House race, where trader consensus prices GOP victory at 92.5% based on strong district fundamentals including a +28 Republican partisan lean, consistent Trump landslides in recent presidential cycles, and Reschenthaler's unchallenged primary dominance. No major developments in the past 30 days have altered this outlook, with campaign finance reports highlighting the incumbent's fundraising edge over Democratic challenger Jim Grimm, a retired Marine facing limited resources and name recognition. Scenarios challenging this include a late scandal, health issue, or unexpected Democratic turnout surge on November 5 election night, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest low upset risk.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$246終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Guy Reschenthaler holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's safely Republican 14th Congressional District House race, where trader consensus prices GOP victory at 92.5% based on strong district fundamentals including a +28 Republican partisan lean, consistent Trump landslides in recent presidential cycles, and Reschenthaler's unchallenged primary dominance. No major developments in the past 30 days have altered this outlook, with campaign finance reports highlighting the incumbent's fundraising edge over Democratic challenger Jim Grimm, a retired Marine facing limited resources and name recognition. Scenarios challenging this include a late scandal, health issue, or unexpected Democratic turnout surge on November 5 election night, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest low upset risk.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$246終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Guy Reschenthaler holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's safely Republican 14th Congressional District House race, where trader consensus prices GOP victory at 92.5% based on strong district fundamentals including a +28 Republican partisan lean, consistent Trump landslides in recent presidential cycles, and Reschenthaler's unchallenged primary dominance. No major developments in the past 30 days have altered this outlook, with campaign finance reports highlighting the incumbent's fundraising edge over Democratic challenger Jim Grimm, a retired Marine facing limited resources and name recognition. Scenarios challenging this include a late scandal, health issue, or unexpected Democratic turnout surge on November 5 election night, though historical patterns in similar safe seats suggest low upset risk.
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