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選挙·プライマリ

NH -01民主党予備選挙優勝者

Market icon
選挙·プライマリ

NH -01民主党予備選挙優勝者

ステファニー・シェーン 61%

マウラ・サリバン 27%

カーリー・ベリオント 11%

ヒース・ハワード 4.8%

Polymarket
NEW

ステファニー・シェーン 61%

マウラ・サリバン 27%

カーリー・ベリオント 11%

ヒース・ハワード 4.8%

Polymarket
NEW

ステファニー・シェーン

$6,876 Vol.

61%

マウラ・サリバン

$1,014 Vol.

27%

カーリー・ベリオント

$1,255 Vol.

11%

ヒース・ハワード

$0 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Stefany Shaheen leads trader consensus at 60.5% implied probability for the NH-01 Democratic primary on September 8, 2026, reflecting her consistent polling edge in an open seat vacated by incumbent Chris Pappas running for U.S. Senate.** The most recent University of New Hampshire poll from January 21 shows her at 33% among likely Democratic primary voters, ahead of Heath Howard (10%), Maura Sullivan (8%), and Carleigh Beriont (3%), with 39% undecided—suggesting potential for consolidation given her high name recognition as daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. No major developments have occurred in the past 30 days, maintaining the status quo from early 2026 surveys where Shaheen's advantage has grown from 23-29% in late 2025 polls. Sullivan trails as a familiar 2018 nominee, while Beriont and Howard draw limited support amid a crowded field; upcoming debates or endorsements could shift dynamics in this competitive primary.

**Stefany Shaheen leads trader consensus at 60.5% implied probability for the NH-01 Democratic primary on September 8, 2026, reflecting her consistent polling edge in an open seat vacated by incumbent Chris Pappas running for U.S. Senate.** The most recent University of New Hampshire poll from January 21 shows her at 33% among likely Democratic primary voters, ahead of Heath Howard (10%), Maura Sullivan (8%), and Carleigh Beriont (3%), with 39% undecided—suggesting potential for consolidation given her high name recognition as daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. No major developments have occurred in the past 30 days, maintaining the status quo from early 2026 surveys where Shaheen's advantage has grown from 23-29% in late 2025 polls. Sullivan trails as a familiar 2018 nominee, while Beriont and Howard draw limited support amid a crowded field; upcoming debates or endorsements could shift dynamics in this competitive primary.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Stefany Shaheen leads trader consensus at 60.5% implied probability for the NH-01 Democratic primary on September 8, 2026, reflecting her consistent polling edge in an open seat vacated by incumbent Chris Pappas running for U.S. Senate.** The most recent University of New Hampshire poll from January 21 shows her at 33% among likely Democratic primary voters, ahead of Heath Howard (10%), Maura Sullivan (8%), and Carleigh Beriont (3%), with 39% undecided—suggesting potential for consolidation given her high name recognition as daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. No major developments have occurred in the past 30 days, maintaining the status quo from early 2026 surveys where Shaheen's advantage has grown from 23-29% in late 2025 polls. Sullivan trails as a familiar 2018 nominee, while Beriont and Howard draw limited support amid a crowded field; upcoming debates or endorsements could shift dynamics in this competitive primary.

**Stefany Shaheen leads trader consensus at 60.5% implied probability for the NH-01 Democratic primary on September 8, 2026, reflecting her consistent polling edge in an open seat vacated by incumbent Chris Pappas running for U.S. Senate.** The most recent University of New Hampshire poll from January 21 shows her at 33% among likely Democratic primary voters, ahead of Heath Howard (10%), Maura Sullivan (8%), and Carleigh Beriont (3%), with 39% undecided—suggesting potential for consolidation given her high name recognition as daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. No major developments have occurred in the past 30 days, maintaining the status quo from early 2026 surveys where Shaheen's advantage has grown from 23-29% in late 2025 polls. Sullivan trails as a familiar 2018 nominee, while Beriont and Howard draw limited support amid a crowded field; upcoming debates or endorsements could shift dynamics in this competitive primary.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「NH -01民主党予備選挙優勝者」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ステファニー・シェーン」で61%、次いで「マウラ・サリバン」が27%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、61¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に61%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「NH -01民主党予備選挙優勝者」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Nov 25, 2025開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「NH -01民主党予備選挙優勝者」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「NH -01民主党予備選挙優勝者」の現在のフロントランナーは「ステファニー・シェーン」で61%であり、市場がこの結果に61%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「マウラ・サリバン」で27%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「NH -01民主党予備選挙優勝者」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。