Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Magdalena Andersson at 58.5% implied probability to become Sweden's next prime minister after the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election, driven by recent polls showing the centre-left bloc—led by her Social Democrats at 31-33%—projected to secure 182-197 seats versus the Tidö right bloc's 152-167 in a 349-seat unicameral parliament under proportional representation. Ulf Kristersson trails at 33%, bolstered slightly by the Liberals' poll bump to 4.5% in a March Demoskop survey and their March 13 pact easing cooperation with Sweden Democrats, yet insufficient to overcome the opposition's lead. Jimmie Åkesson garners 5.3% amid SD strength at 20%, but coalition dynamics favor larger parties; smaller contenders like Ebba Busch lag due to niche support. Government formation hinges on post-election negotiations among divided blocs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日マグダレナ・アンデション 59%
ウルフ・クリステルソン 33%
ジミー・オーケソン 5.3%
エバ・ブッシュ 1.9%
$1,672,634 Vol.
$1,672,634 Vol.
マグダレナ・アンデション
59%
ウルフ・クリステルソン
33%
ジミー・オーケソン
5%
エバ・ブッシュ
2%
アマンダ・リンド
<1%
ヌーシ・ダドゴスター
<1%
アンナ＝カリン・ハット
<1%
シモナ・モハムソン
<1%
ダニエル・ヘルデーン
<1%
エリザベート・タンド・リングクヴィスト
<1%
マグダレナ・アンデション 59%
ウルフ・クリステルソン 33%
ジミー・オーケソン 5.3%
エバ・ブッシュ 1.9%
$1,672,634 Vol.
$1,672,634 Vol.
マグダレナ・アンデション
59%
ウルフ・クリステルソン
33%
ジミー・オーケソン
5%
エバ・ブッシュ
2%
アマンダ・リンド
<1%
ヌーシ・ダドゴスター
<1%
アンナ＝カリン・ハット
<1%
シモナ・モハムソン
<1%
ダニエル・ヘルデーン
<1%
エリザベート・タンド・リングクヴィスト
<1%
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election.
To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 19, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election.
To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors Magdalena Andersson at 58.5% implied probability to become Sweden's next prime minister after the September 13, 2026, Riksdag election, driven by recent polls showing the centre-left bloc—led by her Social Democrats at 31-33%—projected to secure 182-197 seats versus the Tidö right bloc's 152-167 in a 349-seat unicameral parliament under proportional representation. Ulf Kristersson trails at 33%, bolstered slightly by the Liberals' poll bump to 4.5% in a March Demoskop survey and their March 13 pact easing cooperation with Sweden Democrats, yet insufficient to overcome the opposition's lead. Jimmie Åkesson garners 5.3% amid SD strength at 20%, but coalition dynamics favor larger parties; smaller contenders like Ebba Busch lag due to niche support. Government formation hinges on post-election negotiations among divided blocs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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