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政治·プライマリ

NE -02共和党予備選

Market icon
政治·プライマリ

NE -02共和党予備選

ブリンカー・ハーディング 95%

ダン・フライ 4.3%

ブレット・リンドストロム 1.1%

Polymarket
NEW

ブリンカー・ハーディング 95%

ダン・フライ 4.3%

ブレット・リンドストロム 1.1%

Polymarket
NEW

ブリンカー・ハーディング

$0 Vol.

95%

ダン・フライ

$7,703 Vol.

4%

ブレット・リンドストロム

$1,074 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 12, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding at 94% implied probability to win the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District Republican primary on May 12, driven by former State Sen. Brett Lindstrom's withdrawal on January 30, which consolidated establishment support behind Harding. Incumbent Rep. Don Bacon's endorsement that day, alongside Gov. Jim Pillen's backing, bolstered Harding's fundraising lead and path-to-victory in the open seat race, leaving perennial challenger Dan Frei as the primary alternative. With the candidate filing deadline passed on March 1 and no public polls showing contention, Harding's commanding position reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of low upset risk, though late scandals, health events, or Frei momentum from conservative voter turnout could theoretically shift dynamics.

Trader consensus heavily favors Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding at 94% implied probability to win the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District Republican primary on May 12, driven by former State Sen. Brett Lindstrom's withdrawal on January 30, which consolidated establishment support behind Harding. Incumbent Rep. Don Bacon's endorsement that day, alongside Gov. Jim Pillen's backing, bolstered Harding's fundraising lead and path-to-victory in the open seat race, leaving perennial challenger Dan Frei as the primary alternative. With the candidate filing deadline passed on March 1 and no public polls showing contention, Harding's commanding position reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of low upset risk, though late scandals, health events, or Frei momentum from conservative voter turnout could theoretically shift dynamics.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 12, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding at 94% implied probability to win the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District Republican primary on May 12, driven by former State Sen. Brett Lindstrom's withdrawal on January 30, which consolidated establishment support behind Harding. Incumbent Rep. Don Bacon's endorsement that day, alongside Gov. Jim Pillen's backing, bolstered Harding's fundraising lead and path-to-victory in the open seat race, leaving perennial challenger Dan Frei as the primary alternative. With the candidate filing deadline passed on March 1 and no public polls showing contention, Harding's commanding position reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of low upset risk, though late scandals, health events, or Frei momentum from conservative voter turnout could theoretically shift dynamics.

Trader consensus heavily favors Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding at 94% implied probability to win the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District Republican primary on May 12, driven by former State Sen. Brett Lindstrom's withdrawal on January 30, which consolidated establishment support behind Harding. Incumbent Rep. Don Bacon's endorsement that day, alongside Gov. Jim Pillen's backing, bolstered Harding's fundraising lead and path-to-victory in the open seat race, leaving perennial challenger Dan Frei as the primary alternative. With the candidate filing deadline passed on March 1 and no public polls showing contention, Harding's commanding position reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of low upset risk, though late scandals, health events, or Frei momentum from conservative voter turnout could theoretically shift dynamics.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「NE -02共和党予備選」はPolymarket上の3個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「ブリンカー・ハーディング」で95%、次いで「ダン・フライ」が4%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、95¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に95%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「NE -02共和党予備選」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Nov 26, 2025開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「NE -02共和党予備選」で取引するには、このページに記載されている3個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「NE -02共和党予備選」の現在のフロントランナーは「ブリンカー・ハーディング」で95%であり、市場がこの結果に95%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ダン・フライ」で4%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「NE -02共和党予備選」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。