Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data released in late March positions the global surface air temperature anomaly for March 2026 at approximately 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving trader consensus toward the 1.25–1.29°C outcome at 63.3% implied probability. This follows February's warmer 1.49°C reading, with cooling from fading El Niño influences and emerging neutral ENSO conditions in the equatorial Pacific offsetting record U.S. heatwaves—where anomalies exceeded +4.9°C across the Lower 48—alongside cooler European land temperatures. Model consensus highlights regional contrasts and ocean heat content as key shapers, though final Copernicus and Berkeley Earth bulletins expected in early-to-mid April could prompt minor revisions amid measurement uncertainties. Lower bins reflect scenarios of greater cooling or extremes unlikely under current observational trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日1.25〜1.29ºC 67.3%
1.20～1.24ºC 22%
>1.29ºC 10.8%
1.15〜1.19℃ 2.4%
$216,317 Vol.
$216,317 Vol.
2026/04/10
<1.10ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
1%
1.15〜1.19℃
2%
1.20～1.24ºC
22%
1.25〜1.29ºC
63%
>1.29ºC
11%
1.25〜1.29ºC 67.3%
1.20～1.24ºC 22%
>1.29ºC 10.8%
1.15〜1.19℃ 2.4%
$216,317 Vol.
$216,317 Vol.
2026/04/10
<1.10ºC
$28,765 Vol.
1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$27,083 Vol.
1%
1.15〜1.19℃
$53,019 Vol.
2%
1.20～1.24ºC
$38,940 Vol.
22%
1.25〜1.29ºC
$26,351 Vol.
63%
>1.29ºC
$42,160 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data released in late March positions the global surface air temperature anomaly for March 2026 at approximately 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving trader consensus toward the 1.25–1.29°C outcome at 63.3% implied probability. This follows February's warmer 1.49°C reading, with cooling from fading El Niño influences and emerging neutral ENSO conditions in the equatorial Pacific offsetting record U.S. heatwaves—where anomalies exceeded +4.9°C across the Lower 48—alongside cooler European land temperatures. Model consensus highlights regional contrasts and ocean heat content as key shapers, though final Copernicus and Berkeley Earth bulletins expected in early-to-mid April could prompt minor revisions amid measurement uncertainties. Lower bins reflect scenarios of greater cooling or extremes unlikely under current observational trends.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
マーケット開始日： Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
音量
$216,317終了日
2026/04/10マーケット開始日
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data released in late March positions the global surface air temperature anomaly for March 2026 at approximately 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving trader consensus toward the 1.25–1.29°C outcome at 63.3% implied probability. This follows February's warmer 1.49°C reading, with cooling from fading El Niño influences and emerging neutral ENSO conditions in the equatorial Pacific offsetting record U.S. heatwaves—where anomalies exceeded +4.9°C across the Lower 48—alongside cooler European land temperatures. Model consensus highlights regional contrasts and ocean heat content as key shapers, though final Copernicus and Berkeley Earth bulletins expected in early-to-mid April could prompt minor revisions amid measurement uncertainties. Lower bins reflect scenarios of greater cooling or extremes unlikely under current observational trends.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for March 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for March 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
音量
$216,317終了日
2026/04/10マーケット開始日
Feb 27, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data released in late March positions the global surface air temperature anomaly for March 2026 at approximately 1.27°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline, driving trader consensus toward the 1.25–1.29°C outcome at 63.3% implied probability. This follows February's warmer 1.49°C reading, with cooling from fading El Niño influences and emerging neutral ENSO conditions in the equatorial Pacific offsetting record U.S. heatwaves—where anomalies exceeded +4.9°C across the Lower 48—alongside cooler European land temperatures. Model consensus highlights regional contrasts and ocean heat content as key shapers, though final Copernicus and Berkeley Earth bulletins expected in early-to-mid April could prompt minor revisions amid measurement uncertainties. Lower bins reflect scenarios of greater cooling or extremes unlikely under current observational trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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