Trader consensus on Nicolás Maduro's potential prison sentence reflects deep uncertainty in his ongoing U.S. federal narcoterrorism prosecution in New York, where no prison time leads narrowly at 35.5% over 60+ months at 30%, driven by pretrial disputes rather than a verdict. A federal judge last week rejected Maduro's bid to dismiss charges—stemming from a January 2026 superseding indictment alleging drug trafficking conspiracies with a 20-year mandatory minimum—citing funding battles over Venezuelan payments for his defense and questions on his military capture in Caracas. The case tests a rarely successful narcoterrorism statute, with historical low conviction rates, while his SAMs detention underscores security concerns; plea negotiations or jurisdictional challenges could tip outcomes ahead of any trial date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日刑務所に入らない 36%
60年以上 24%
40～60 14%
20～40 10.6%
$446,021 Vol.
$446,021 Vol.
2027/12/31
刑務所に入らない
36%
20年未満
3%
20～40
11%
40～60
14%
60年以上
30%
刑務所に入らない 36%
60年以上 24%
40～60 14%
20～40 10.6%
$446,021 Vol.
$446,021 Vol.
2027/12/31
刑務所に入らない
$349,485 Vol.
36%
20年未満
$27,929 Vol.
3%
20～40
$27,070 Vol.
11%
40～60
$12,830 Vol.
14%
60年以上
$28,707 Vol.
30%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Nicolás Maduro's potential prison sentence reflects deep uncertainty in his ongoing U.S. federal narcoterrorism prosecution in New York, where no prison time leads narrowly at 35.5% over 60+ months at 30%, driven by pretrial disputes rather than a verdict. A federal judge last week rejected Maduro's bid to dismiss charges—stemming from a January 2026 superseding indictment alleging drug trafficking conspiracies with a 20-year mandatory minimum—citing funding battles over Venezuelan payments for his defense and questions on his military capture in Caracas. The case tests a rarely successful narcoterrorism statute, with historical low conviction rates, while his SAMs detention underscores security concerns; plea negotiations or jurisdictional challenges could tip outcomes ahead of any trial date.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
音量
$446,021終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Nicolás Maduro's potential prison sentence reflects deep uncertainty in his ongoing U.S. federal narcoterrorism prosecution in New York, where no prison time leads narrowly at 35.5% over 60+ months at 30%, driven by pretrial disputes rather than a verdict. A federal judge last week rejected Maduro's bid to dismiss charges—stemming from a January 2026 superseding indictment alleging drug trafficking conspiracies with a 20-year mandatory minimum—citing funding battles over Venezuelan payments for his defense and questions on his military capture in Caracas. The case tests a rarely successful narcoterrorism statute, with historical low conviction rates, while his SAMs detention underscores security concerns; plea negotiations or jurisdictional challenges could tip outcomes ahead of any trial date.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$446,021終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Nicolás Maduro's potential prison sentence reflects deep uncertainty in his ongoing U.S. federal narcoterrorism prosecution in New York, where no prison time leads narrowly at 35.5% over 60+ months at 30%, driven by pretrial disputes rather than a verdict. A federal judge last week rejected Maduro's bid to dismiss charges—stemming from a January 2026 superseding indictment alleging drug trafficking conspiracies with a 20-year mandatory minimum—citing funding battles over Venezuelan payments for his defense and questions on his military capture in Caracas. The case tests a rarely successful narcoterrorism statute, with historical low conviction rates, while his SAMs detention underscores security concerns; plea negotiations or jurisdictional challenges could tip outcomes ahead of any trial date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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