Trader consensus on an 83% implied probability for "No" reflects Evo Morales' continued evasion of arrest despite an active warrant confirmed by Bolivia's prosecutor in early March 2026 for human trafficking and statutory rape allegations stemming from prior judicial orders. The former president's whereabouts remain unknown since early February, amid political divisions within the ruling MAS party between Morales loyalists and President Luis Arce's faction, which have fueled protests and judicial controversies—including a judge's detention for annulling a warrant last year. Recent high-profile police actions, like the mid-March capture of narco-trafficker Sebastián Marset, underscore enforcement capacity elsewhere but no progress on Morales, whose indigenous base and influence complicate detention ahead of the May 31 deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/05/31
新規
新規
2026/05/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on an 83% implied probability for "No" reflects Evo Morales' continued evasion of arrest despite an active warrant confirmed by Bolivia's prosecutor in early March 2026 for human trafficking and statutory rape allegations stemming from prior judicial orders. The former president's whereabouts remain unknown since early February, amid political divisions within the ruling MAS party between Morales loyalists and President Luis Arce's faction, which have fueled protests and judicial controversies—including a judge's detention for annulling a warrant last year. Recent high-profile police actions, like the mid-March capture of narco-trafficker Sebastián Marset, underscore enforcement capacity elsewhere but no progress on Morales, whose indigenous base and influence complicate detention ahead of the May 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
音量
$72終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on an 83% implied probability for "No" reflects Evo Morales' continued evasion of arrest despite an active warrant confirmed by Bolivia's prosecutor in early March 2026 for human trafficking and statutory rape allegations stemming from prior judicial orders. The former president's whereabouts remain unknown since early February, amid political divisions within the ruling MAS party between Morales loyalists and President Luis Arce's faction, which have fueled protests and judicial controversies—including a judge's detention for annulling a warrant last year. Recent high-profile police actions, like the mid-March capture of narco-trafficker Sebastián Marset, underscore enforcement capacity elsewhere but no progress on Morales, whose indigenous base and influence complicate detention ahead of the May 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$72終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on an 83% implied probability for "No" reflects Evo Morales' continued evasion of arrest despite an active warrant confirmed by Bolivia's prosecutor in early March 2026 for human trafficking and statutory rape allegations stemming from prior judicial orders. The former president's whereabouts remain unknown since early February, amid political divisions within the ruling MAS party between Morales loyalists and President Luis Arce's faction, which have fueled protests and judicial controversies—including a judge's detention for annulling a warrant last year. Recent high-profile police actions, like the mid-March capture of narco-trafficker Sebastián Marset, underscore enforcement capacity elsewhere but no progress on Morales, whose indigenous base and influence complicate detention ahead of the May 31 deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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