Bipartisan Senate legislation introduced last week by Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT), dubbed the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, seeks to prohibit CFTC-registered platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket from listing sports event contracts resembling traditional bets, prompting similar bills from Rep. Jamie Raskin and Sen. Jeff Merkley targeting broader bans on elections, war, and politics. Despite this flurry of introductions since March 23, no committee hearings, floor votes, or advancement have occurred amid a crowded legislative agenda and competing priorities in the new Congress. CFTC's recent guidance emphasizes enhanced oversight and coordination with sports leagues like the NFL rather than outright prohibition, while platforms implement self-regulatory measures against insider trading. Traders' 89.5% implied probability on "No" reflects historical challenges to niche regulatory bills passing within a single year, with low enactment risk barring unexpected momentum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
新規
新規
2026/06/30
はい
新規
新規
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Bipartisan Senate legislation introduced last week by Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT), dubbed the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, seeks to prohibit CFTC-registered platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket from listing sports event contracts resembling traditional bets, prompting similar bills from Rep. Jamie Raskin and Sen. Jeff Merkley targeting broader bans on elections, war, and politics. Despite this flurry of introductions since March 23, no committee hearings, floor votes, or advancement have occurred amid a crowded legislative agenda and competing priorities in the new Congress. CFTC's recent guidance emphasizes enhanced oversight and coordination with sports leagues like the NFL rather than outright prohibition, while platforms implement self-regulatory measures against insider trading. Traders' 89.5% implied probability on "No" reflects historical challenges to niche regulatory bills passing within a single year, with low enactment risk barring unexpected momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
音量
$9,357終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Bipartisan Senate legislation introduced last week by Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT), dubbed the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, seeks to prohibit CFTC-registered platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket from listing sports event contracts resembling traditional bets, prompting similar bills from Rep. Jamie Raskin and Sen. Jeff Merkley targeting broader bans on elections, war, and politics. Despite this flurry of introductions since March 23, no committee hearings, floor votes, or advancement have occurred amid a crowded legislative agenda and competing priorities in the new Congress. CFTC's recent guidance emphasizes enhanced oversight and coordination with sports leagues like the NFL rather than outright prohibition, while platforms implement self-regulatory measures against insider trading. Traders' 89.5% implied probability on "No" reflects historical challenges to niche regulatory bills passing within a single year, with low enactment risk barring unexpected momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$9,357終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Bipartisan Senate legislation introduced last week by Sens. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and John Curtis (R-UT), dubbed the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, seeks to prohibit CFTC-registered platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket from listing sports event contracts resembling traditional bets, prompting similar bills from Rep. Jamie Raskin and Sen. Jeff Merkley targeting broader bans on elections, war, and politics. Despite this flurry of introductions since March 23, no committee hearings, floor votes, or advancement have occurred amid a crowded legislative agenda and competing priorities in the new Congress. CFTC's recent guidance emphasizes enhanced oversight and coordination with sports leagues like the NFL rather than outright prohibition, while platforms implement self-regulatory measures against insider trading. Traders' 89.5% implied probability on "No" reflects historical challenges to niche regulatory bills passing within a single year, with low enactment risk barring unexpected momentum.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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