Trader consensus strongly backs SpaceX (88.5% implied probability) for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its private valuation exploding to $350 billion in December tender offers, accelerated by Starship Flight 5's November 19 success—catching the booster mid-air—and Elon Musk's influence via government contracts post-Trump election. xAI (25.5%) trails as a fast-rising AI contender, with recent funding talks eyeing $75 billion valuation amid Grok-3 model hype, underscoring Musk's serial startup dominance. OpenAI (4.7%) and Anthropic (2.8%) lag due to private growth focus, recent mega-rounds ($157 billion and $61.5 billion valuations), and AI regulatory headwinds without IPO timelines. Starship Flight 6 and Starlink spin-off hints loom as key catalysts, though technical delays pose risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日スペースX 89%
OpenAI 4.7%
Anthropic 2.8%
クラーケン <1%
$1,061,425 Vol.
$1,061,425 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
スペースX
89%
OpenAI
5%
Anthropic
3%
クラーケン
1%
Databricks
1%
Discord
1%
バイトダンス
<1%
Stripe
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
スペースX 89%
OpenAI 4.7%
Anthropic 2.8%
クラーケン <1%
$1,061,425 Vol.
$1,061,425 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
スペースX
$174,216 Vol.
89%
OpenAI
$292,901 Vol.
5%
Anthropic
$142,043 Vol.
3%
クラーケン
$362,111 Vol.
1%
Databricks
$0 Vol.
1%
Discord
$0 Vol.
1%
バイトダンス
$0 Vol.
<1%
Stripe
$0 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$0 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$0 Vol.
<1%
Waymo
$38,561 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$51,593 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus strongly backs SpaceX (88.5% implied probability) for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its private valuation exploding to $350 billion in December tender offers, accelerated by Starship Flight 5's November 19 success—catching the booster mid-air—and Elon Musk's influence via government contracts post-Trump election. xAI (25.5%) trails as a fast-rising AI contender, with recent funding talks eyeing $75 billion valuation amid Grok-3 model hype, underscoring Musk's serial startup dominance. OpenAI (4.7%) and Anthropic (2.8%) lag due to private growth focus, recent mega-rounds ($157 billion and $61.5 billion valuations), and AI regulatory headwinds without IPO timelines. Starship Flight 6 and Starlink spin-off hints loom as key catalysts, though technical delays pose risks.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日： Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
音量
$1,061,425終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus strongly backs SpaceX (88.5% implied probability) for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its private valuation exploding to $350 billion in December tender offers, accelerated by Starship Flight 5's November 19 success—catching the booster mid-air—and Elon Musk's influence via government contracts post-Trump election. xAI (25.5%) trails as a fast-rising AI contender, with recent funding talks eyeing $75 billion valuation amid Grok-3 model hype, underscoring Musk's serial startup dominance. OpenAI (4.7%) and Anthropic (2.8%) lag due to private growth focus, recent mega-rounds ($157 billion and $61.5 billion valuations), and AI regulatory headwinds without IPO timelines. Starship Flight 6 and Starlink spin-off hints loom as key catalysts, though technical delays pose risks.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
音量
$1,061,425終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus strongly backs SpaceX (88.5% implied probability) for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by its private valuation exploding to $350 billion in December tender offers, accelerated by Starship Flight 5's November 19 success—catching the booster mid-air—and Elon Musk's influence via government contracts post-Trump election. xAI (25.5%) trails as a fast-rising AI contender, with recent funding talks eyeing $75 billion valuation amid Grok-3 model hype, underscoring Musk's serial startup dominance. OpenAI (4.7%) and Anthropic (2.8%) lag due to private growth focus, recent mega-rounds ($157 billion and $61.5 billion valuations), and AI regulatory headwinds without IPO timelines. Starship Flight 6 and Starlink spin-off hints loom as key catalysts, though technical delays pose risks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問