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Israel x Iran ceasefire by Friday?

Market icon

Israel x Iran ceasefire by Friday?

<1% 確率
Polymarket

$285,858 Vol.

<1% 確率
Polymarket

$285,858 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Iran by June 20, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Unilateral statements from either Iran or Israel that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, Israel, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Ceasefire agreements between Israel and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has been reached will suffice.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Iran by June 20, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Unilateral statements from either Iran or Israel that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, Israel, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Ceasefire agreements between Israel and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has been reached will suffice.
音量
$285,858
終了日
2025/06/20
マーケット開始日
Jun 15, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Iran by June 20, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Unilateral statements from either Iran or Israel that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, Israel, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Ceasefire agreements between Israel and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has been reached will suffice.

提案された結果: No

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Iran by June 20, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Unilateral statements from either Iran or Israel that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, Israel, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Ceasefire agreements between Israel and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has been reached will suffice.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Iran by June 20, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Unilateral statements from either Iran or Israel that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, Israel, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.

Ceasefire agreements between Israel and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify.

Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has been reached will suffice.
音量
$285,858
終了日
2025/06/20
マーケット開始日
Jun 15, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Iran by June 20, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Unilateral statements from either Iran or Israel that they are pausing or ending military action will not qualify if it does not reflect a mutually agreed halt in military engagement. However, a ceasefire which is publicly announced by either Iran, Israel, or a third party mediator, which is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting will qualify. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Ceasefire agreements between Israel and any Iranian entity other than the internationally recognized government of the Islamic Republic of Iran—such as a provisional authority or opposition group in the event of civil war or revolution—will not qualify. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, specific locations, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's primary resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel and Iran. However, a publicly announced ceasefire which is confirmed by a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel has been reached will suffice.

提案された結果: No

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: No

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「Israel x Iran ceasefire by Friday? 」はPolymarket上の予測市場で、トレーダーがこのイベントが起こるかどうかに基づいて「はい」または「いいえ」のシェアを売買します。コミュニティによる現在の確率は「Yes」に対して0%です。例えば、「はい」が0¢で取引されている場合、市場はこのイベントが発生する確率を0%と集合的に評価しています。これらのオッズはトレーダーが新しい展開や情報に反応するにつれて継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「Israel x Iran ceasefire by Friday? 」は$285.9Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Jun 15, 2025のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「Israel x Iran ceasefire by Friday? 」で取引するには、答えが「はい」か「いいえ」かを選ぶだけです。各側には市場の暗示確率を反映する現在の価格があります。金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。「はい」のシェアを購入し、結果が「はい」と決まった場合、各シェアは$1を支払います。「いいえ」と決まった場合、「はい」のシェアは$0を支払います。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却して利益を確定したり、損失を抑えたりすることもできます。

「Israel x Iran ceasefire by Friday? 」の現在の確率は「Yes」に対して0%です。これはPolymarketコミュニティがこのイベントの発生確率を0%と現在評価していることを意味します。これらのオッズは実際の取引に基づいてリアルタイムで更新され、市場の期待を継続的に反映するシグナルを提供します。

「Israel x Iran ceasefire by Friday? 」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。