Trader consensus favors 14 SpaceX launches in April at 44.5% implied probability, driven by the company's blistering 2026 cadence—exemplified by over 10 missions in late March, including a dual-launch day on March 30 with Starlink and Transporter-16. The successful April 2 liftoff of Starlink Group 10-58 from Cape Canaveral's SLC-40 kicked off the month without delays, boosting confidence in multi-pad operations across Florida and California sites. Firm manifests for Starlink groups and NG-24 Cygnus on April 5, 8, 9, 12, and 14, plus NET slots for GPS III-10 and ViaSat-3 Falcon Heavy, support 12-14 totals at a 2-3 day pace, while extremes like ≤11 or 17+ carry low odds amid weather and regulatory risks. Key catalysts include the imminent April 5 Starlink and any Starship Flight 12 progress.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日12 32.2%
13 23%
15 16%
16 14.0%
$16,405 Vol.
$16,405 Vol.
≤11
6%
12
32%
13
23%
14
42%
15
16%
16
10%
17 or more
7%
12 32.2%
13 23%
15 16%
16 14.0%
$16,405 Vol.
$16,405 Vol.
≤11
6%
12
32%
13
23%
14
42%
15
16%
16
10%
17 or more
7%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 14 SpaceX launches in April at 44.5% implied probability, driven by the company's blistering 2026 cadence—exemplified by over 10 missions in late March, including a dual-launch day on March 30 with Starlink and Transporter-16. The successful April 2 liftoff of Starlink Group 10-58 from Cape Canaveral's SLC-40 kicked off the month without delays, boosting confidence in multi-pad operations across Florida and California sites. Firm manifests for Starlink groups and NG-24 Cygnus on April 5, 8, 9, 12, and 14, plus NET slots for GPS III-10 and ViaSat-3 Falcon Heavy, support 12-14 totals at a 2-3 day pace, while extremes like ≤11 or 17+ carry low odds amid weather and regulatory risks. Key catalysts include the imminent April 5 Starlink and any Starship Flight 12 progress.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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