Polymarket traders price a 35.8% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026—totaling 0 basis points—with 22.5% for one 25 basis-point cut and 16.5% for two, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data tempering monetary policy easing expectations amid the current 3.5%-3.75% federal funds target range. The March 18 FOMC held rates steady, with the dot plot median unchanged at one cut despite upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts near 2.7%; stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 and unemployment dipping to 4.3% further supported this hawkish tilt. Geopolitical tensions from the Iran war have spiked oil prices, elevating CPI nowcasts and core PCE to 3.38%, while Chair Powell's March 30 remarks highlighted anchored long-term inflation expectations, justifying patience. The April 28-29 FOMC looms as the next key catalyst, with CME FedWatch showing 99.5% odds of a hold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日0（0ベーシスポイント） 35.8%
1回（25ベーシスポイント） 23%
2（50ベーシスポイント） 17%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 9%
$16,262,562 Vol.
$16,262,562 Vol.
2026/12/31
0（0ベーシスポイント）
36%
1回（25ベーシスポイント）
23%
2（50ベーシスポイント）
17%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
9%
4回（100ベーシスポイント）
5%
5回（125ベーシスポイント）
2%
6回（150ベーシスポイント）
1%
7回（175ベーシスポイント）
1%
8回（200ベーシスポイント）
1%
9回（225ベーシスポイント）
<1%
10（250ベーシスポイント）
1%
11回（275ベーシスポイント）
1%
12回以上（300bps以上）
1%
0（0ベーシスポイント） 35.8%
1回（25ベーシスポイント） 23%
2（50ベーシスポイント） 17%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 9%
$16,262,562 Vol.
$16,262,562 Vol.
2026/12/31
0（0ベーシスポイント）
$2,758,189 Vol.
36%
1回（25ベーシスポイント）
$910,124 Vol.
23%
2（50ベーシスポイント）
$839,808 Vol.
17%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
$806,583 Vol.
9%
4回（100ベーシスポイント）
$816,544 Vol.
5%
5回（125ベーシスポイント）
$910,916 Vol.
2%
6回（150ベーシスポイント）
$1,931,675 Vol.
1%
7回（175ベーシスポイント）
$820,669 Vol.
1%
8回（200ベーシスポイント）
$1,063,225 Vol.
1%
9回（225ベーシスポイント）
$980,512 Vol.
<1%
10（250ベーシスポイント）
$1,414,613 Vol.
1%
11回（275ベーシスポイント）
$1,354,947 Vol.
1%
12回以上（300bps以上）
$1,654,762 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 35.8% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026—totaling 0 basis points—with 22.5% for one 25 basis-point cut and 16.5% for two, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data tempering monetary policy easing expectations amid the current 3.5%-3.75% federal funds target range. The March 18 FOMC held rates steady, with the dot plot median unchanged at one cut despite upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts near 2.7%; stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 and unemployment dipping to 4.3% further supported this hawkish tilt. Geopolitical tensions from the Iran war have spiked oil prices, elevating CPI nowcasts and core PCE to 3.38%, while Chair Powell's March 30 remarks highlighted anchored long-term inflation expectations, justifying patience. The April 28-29 FOMC looms as the next key catalyst, with CME FedWatch showing 99.5% odds of a hold.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
マーケット開始日： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$16,262,562終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 35.8% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026—totaling 0 basis points—with 22.5% for one 25 basis-point cut and 16.5% for two, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data tempering monetary policy easing expectations amid the current 3.5%-3.75% federal funds target range. The March 18 FOMC held rates steady, with the dot plot median unchanged at one cut despite upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts near 2.7%; stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 and unemployment dipping to 4.3% further supported this hawkish tilt. Geopolitical tensions from the Iran war have spiked oil prices, elevating CPI nowcasts and core PCE to 3.38%, while Chair Powell's March 30 remarks highlighted anchored long-term inflation expectations, justifying patience. The April 28-29 FOMC looms as the next key catalyst, with CME FedWatch showing 99.5% odds of a hold.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
音量
$16,262,562終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 35.8% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026—totaling 0 basis points—with 22.5% for one 25 basis-point cut and 16.5% for two, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data tempering monetary policy easing expectations amid the current 3.5%-3.75% federal funds target range. The March 18 FOMC held rates steady, with the dot plot median unchanged at one cut despite upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts near 2.7%; stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000 and unemployment dipping to 4.3% further supported this hawkish tilt. Geopolitical tensions from the Iran war have spiked oil prices, elevating CPI nowcasts and core PCE to 3.38%, while Chair Powell's March 30 remarks highlighted anchored long-term inflation expectations, justifying patience. The April 28-29 FOMC looms as the next key catalyst, with CME FedWatch showing 99.5% odds of a hold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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