Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race between zero (30.8%) and one (27.5%) 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts in 2026, driven by the Federal Open Market Committee's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky 2.4% February CPI inflation and softening but resilient labor markets, with February nonfarm payrolls down 92,000 jobs. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks emphasized well-anchored long-term inflation expectations despite energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, tempering cut expectations while noting no immediate policy shift. Upcoming March jobs data (April 5) and CPI release (April 10) loom as key swing factors, alongside the May FOMC meeting, with fixed-income markets implying sustained rates as the base case.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日0（0ベーシスポイント） 30.8%
1回（25ベーシスポイント） 28%
2（50ベーシスポイント） 21%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 10%
$15,510,566 Vol.
$15,510,566 Vol.
2026/12/31
0（0ベーシスポイント）
31%
1回（25ベーシスポイント）
28%
2（50ベーシスポイント）
21%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
10%
4回（100ベーシスポイント）
5%
5回（125ベーシスポイント）
2%
6回（150ベーシスポイント）
1%
7回（175ベーシスポイント）
1%
8回（200ベーシスポイント）
<1%
9回（225ベーシスポイント）
<1%
10（250ベーシスポイント）
<1%
11回（275ベーシスポイント）
<1%
12回以上（300bps以上）
1%
0（0ベーシスポイント） 30.8%
1回（25ベーシスポイント） 28%
2（50ベーシスポイント） 21%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 10%
$15,510,566 Vol.
$15,510,566 Vol.
2026/12/31
0（0ベーシスポイント）
$2,697,574 Vol.
31%
1回（25ベーシスポイント）
$895,800 Vol.
28%
2（50ベーシスポイント）
$824,469 Vol.
21%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
$795,382 Vol.
10%
4回（100ベーシスポイント）
$808,374 Vol.
5%
5回（125ベーシスポイント）
$866,314 Vol.
2%
6回（150ベーシスポイント）
$1,884,194 Vol.
1%
7回（175ベーシスポイント）
$795,217 Vol.
1%
8回（200ベーシスポイント）
$1,023,020 Vol.
<1%
9回（225ベーシスポイント）
$851,485 Vol.
<1%
10（250ベーシスポイント）
$1,312,092 Vol.
<1%
11回（275ベーシスポイント）
$1,131,647 Vol.
<1%
12回以上（300bps以上）
$1,625,831 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race between zero (30.8%) and one (27.5%) 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts in 2026, driven by the Federal Open Market Committee's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky 2.4% February CPI inflation and softening but resilient labor markets, with February nonfarm payrolls down 92,000 jobs. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks emphasized well-anchored long-term inflation expectations despite energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, tempering cut expectations while noting no immediate policy shift. Upcoming March jobs data (April 5) and CPI release (April 10) loom as key swing factors, alongside the May FOMC meeting, with fixed-income markets implying sustained rates as the base case.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
マーケット開始日： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$15,510,566終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race between zero (30.8%) and one (27.5%) 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts in 2026, driven by the Federal Open Market Committee's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky 2.4% February CPI inflation and softening but resilient labor markets, with February nonfarm payrolls down 92,000 jobs. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks emphasized well-anchored long-term inflation expectations despite energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, tempering cut expectations while noting no immediate policy shift. Upcoming March jobs data (April 5) and CPI release (April 10) loom as key swing factors, alongside the May FOMC meeting, with fixed-income markets implying sustained rates as the base case.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
音量
$15,510,566終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight race between zero (30.8%) and one (27.5%) 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts in 2026, driven by the Federal Open Market Committee's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky 2.4% February CPI inflation and softening but resilient labor markets, with February nonfarm payrolls down 92,000 jobs. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks emphasized well-anchored long-term inflation expectations despite energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, tempering cut expectations while noting no immediate policy shift. Upcoming March jobs data (April 5) and CPI release (April 10) loom as key swing factors, alongside the May FOMC meeting, with fixed-income markets implying sustained rates as the base case.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問