Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.8% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and a recent oil price surge that has eroded expectations for monetary easing. The March 18 FOMC meeting held the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with the dot plot median projecting a modest 3.4% rate by year-end—implying just one 25 basis point cut—amid stable labor markets and unemployment at 4.4%. Surging energy costs post-March have scaled back cut odds sharply, boosting the zero-cut outcome from prior lows, while brokerages still eye two mid-year reductions. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI data on April 10 and the April 29 FOMC, with futures showing near-certainty of no near-term action.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日0（0ベーシスポイント） 35.8%
1回（25ベーシスポイント） 23%
2（50ベーシスポイント） 17%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 9%
$16,118,582 Vol.
$16,118,582 Vol.
2026/12/31
0（0ベーシスポイント）
36%
1回（25ベーシスポイント）
23%
2（50ベーシスポイント）
17%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
9%
4回（100ベーシスポイント）
5%
5回（125ベーシスポイント）
2%
6回（150ベーシスポイント）
1%
7回（175ベーシスポイント）
1%
8回（200ベーシスポイント）
1%
9回（225ベーシスポイント）
<1%
10（250ベーシスポイント）
<1%
11回（275ベーシスポイント）
<1%
12回以上（300bps以上）
1%
0（0ベーシスポイント） 35.8%
1回（25ベーシスポイント） 23%
2（50ベーシスポイント） 17%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 9%
$16,118,582 Vol.
$16,118,582 Vol.
2026/12/31
0（0ベーシスポイント）
$2,752,772 Vol.
36%
1回（25ベーシスポイント）
$907,605 Vol.
23%
2（50ベーシスポイント）
$835,856 Vol.
17%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
$805,297 Vol.
9%
4回（100ベーシスポイント）
$816,373 Vol.
5%
5回（125ベーシスポイント）
$908,690 Vol.
2%
6回（150ベーシスポイント）
$1,928,160 Vol.
1%
7回（175ベーシスポイント）
$815,900 Vol.
1%
8回（200ベーシスポイント）
$1,058,755 Vol.
1%
9回（225ベーシスポイント）
$954,831 Vol.
<1%
10（250ベーシスポイント）
$1,394,541 Vol.
<1%
11回（275ベーシスポイント）
$1,287,790 Vol.
<1%
12回以上（300bps以上）
$1,652,960 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.8% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and a recent oil price surge that has eroded expectations for monetary easing. The March 18 FOMC meeting held the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with the dot plot median projecting a modest 3.4% rate by year-end—implying just one 25 basis point cut—amid stable labor markets and unemployment at 4.4%. Surging energy costs post-March have scaled back cut odds sharply, boosting the zero-cut outcome from prior lows, while brokerages still eye two mid-year reductions. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI data on April 10 and the April 29 FOMC, with futures showing near-certainty of no near-term action.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
マーケット開始日： Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
音量
$16,118,582終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.8% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and a recent oil price surge that has eroded expectations for monetary easing. The March 18 FOMC meeting held the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with the dot plot median projecting a modest 3.4% rate by year-end—implying just one 25 basis point cut—amid stable labor markets and unemployment at 4.4%. Surging energy costs post-March have scaled back cut odds sharply, boosting the zero-cut outcome from prior lows, while brokerages still eye two mid-year reductions. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI data on April 10 and the April 29 FOMC, with futures showing near-certainty of no near-term action.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
音量
$16,118,582終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 35.8% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting sticky inflation pressures and a recent oil price surge that has eroded expectations for monetary easing. The March 18 FOMC meeting held the fed funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%, with the dot plot median projecting a modest 3.4% rate by year-end—implying just one 25 basis point cut—amid stable labor markets and unemployment at 4.4%. Surging energy costs post-March have scaled back cut odds sharply, boosting the zero-cut outcome from prior lows, while brokerages still eye two mid-year reductions. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI data on April 10 and the April 29 FOMC, with futures showing near-certainty of no near-term action.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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