The near-unanimous trader consensus (99.4% implied probability on 80–85 per 100,000) reflects CDC FluSurv-NET's Week 11 cumulative influenza hospitalization rate of 81.6 per 100,000 population—third-highest on record at this stage—coupled with sharply declining weekly admissions (down to 5,640 last week from prior peaks) and subsiding outpatient respiratory illness activity nationwide. This severe 2025-26 season, dominated by influenza A strains, has driven season-to-date estimates of 360,000 hospitalizations, but forecasts from CDC's FluSight ensemble predict further decreases amid spring transitions. Realistic challenges include delayed hospital reporting revising rates upward into 85–90 (historical precedent shows ~1-2 point adjustments) or an improbable late surge, though low positivity rates make this unlikely; await the official Week 12 FluView report for confirmation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
80–85 99.2%
85–90 <1%
<75 <1%
75–80 <1%
$20,174 Vol.
$20,174 Vol.
2026/04/03
<75
<1%
75–80
<1%
80–85
99%
85–90
<1%
90–95
<1%
95以上
<1%
80–85 99.2%
85–90 <1%
<75 <1%
75–80 <1%
$20,174 Vol.
$20,174 Vol.
2026/04/03
<75
$1,581 Vol.
<1%
75–80
$1,500 Vol.
<1%
80–85
$9,934 Vol.
99%
85–90
$1,442 Vol.
<1%
90–95
$4,510 Vol.
<1%
95以上
$1,206 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.The near-unanimous trader consensus (99.4% implied probability on 80–85 per 100,000) reflects CDC FluSurv-NET's Week 11 cumulative influenza hospitalization rate of 81.6 per 100,000 population—third-highest on record at this stage—coupled with sharply declining weekly admissions (down to 5,640 last week from prior peaks) and subsiding outpatient respiratory illness activity nationwide. This severe 2025-26 season, dominated by influenza A strains, has driven season-to-date estimates of 360,000 hospitalizations, but forecasts from CDC's FluSight ensemble predict further decreases amid spring transitions. Realistic challenges include delayed hospital reporting revising rates upward into 85–90 (historical precedent shows ~1-2 point adjustments) or an improbable late surge, though low positivity rates make this unlikely; await the official Week 12 FluView report for confirmation.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
マーケット開始日： Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ET
音量
$20,174終了日
2026/04/03マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.The near-unanimous trader consensus (99.4% implied probability on 80–85 per 100,000) reflects CDC FluSurv-NET's Week 11 cumulative influenza hospitalization rate of 81.6 per 100,000 population—third-highest on record at this stage—coupled with sharply declining weekly admissions (down to 5,640 last week from prior peaks) and subsiding outpatient respiratory illness activity nationwide. This severe 2025-26 season, dominated by influenza A strains, has driven season-to-date estimates of 360,000 hospitalizations, but forecasts from CDC's FluSight ensemble predict further decreases amid spring transitions. Realistic challenges include delayed hospital reporting revising rates upward into 85–90 (historical precedent shows ~1-2 point adjustments) or an improbable late surge, though low positivity rates make this unlikely; await the official Week 12 FluView report for confirmation.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
音量
$20,174終了日
2026/04/03マーケット開始日
Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The near-unanimous trader consensus (99.4% implied probability on 80–85 per 100,000) reflects CDC FluSurv-NET's Week 11 cumulative influenza hospitalization rate of 81.6 per 100,000 population—third-highest on record at this stage—coupled with sharply declining weekly admissions (down to 5,640 last week from prior peaks) and subsiding outpatient respiratory illness activity nationwide. This severe 2025-26 season, dominated by influenza A strains, has driven season-to-date estimates of 360,000 hospitalizations, but forecasts from CDC's FluSight ensemble predict further decreases amid spring transitions. Realistic challenges include delayed hospital reporting revising rates upward into 85–90 (historical precedent shows ~1-2 point adjustments) or an improbable late surge, though low positivity rates make this unlikely; await the official Week 12 FluView report for confirmation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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