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政治·プライマリ

FL -19共和党予備選

Market icon
政治·プライマリ

FL -19共和党予備選

カタリナ・ラウフ 40%

マディソン・コーソーン 17.3%

ジム・オーバーワイス 9.5%

ジム・シュワーツェル 5%

Polymarket

$18,239 Vol.

カタリナ・ラウフ 40%

マディソン・コーソーン 17.3%

ジム・オーバーワイス 9.5%

ジム・シュワーツェル 5%

Polymarket

$18,239 Vol.

カタリナ・ラウフ

$15,461 Vol.

54%

マディソン・コーソーン

$721 Vol.

17%

ジム・オーバーワイス

$2,057 Vol.

10%

ジム・シュワーツェル

$0 Vol.

18%

ボブ・ロメル

$0 Vol.

2%

スペンサー・ローチ

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus positions Catalina Lauf as the clear frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability to win Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary on August 18, propelled by her Trump administration service, conservative influencer status, and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February, signaling strong MAGA appeal in this open seat vacated by Byron Donalds. Madison Cawthorn's odds climbed to 17.2% after Johnny Fratto's late February withdrawal and endorsement, leveraging his prior congressional name recognition despite past controversies. Local media executive Jim Schwartzel holds 17.5% on business-oriented messaging as a non-carpetbagger alternative, while self-funded Jim Oberweis lags at 9.5% amid concerns over his age and Illinois roots. Absent public polls, pricing reflects early fundraising edges—Oberweis at nearly $3 million cash-on-hand—and perceived momentum, with candidate filing deadline April 24 potentially reshaping the crowded field.

Trader consensus positions Catalina Lauf as the clear frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability to win Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary on August 18, propelled by her Trump administration service, conservative influencer status, and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February, signaling strong MAGA appeal in this open seat vacated by Byron Donalds. Madison Cawthorn's odds climbed to 17.2% after Johnny Fratto's late February withdrawal and endorsement, leveraging his prior congressional name recognition despite past controversies. Local media executive Jim Schwartzel holds 17.5% on business-oriented messaging as a non-carpetbagger alternative, while self-funded Jim Oberweis lags at 9.5% amid concerns over his age and Illinois roots. Absent public polls, pricing reflects early fundraising edges—Oberweis at nearly $3 million cash-on-hand—and perceived momentum, with candidate filing deadline April 24 potentially reshaping the crowded field.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus positions Catalina Lauf as the clear frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability to win Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary on August 18, propelled by her Trump administration service, conservative influencer status, and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February, signaling strong MAGA appeal in this open seat vacated by Byron Donalds. Madison Cawthorn's odds climbed to 17.2% after Johnny Fratto's late February withdrawal and endorsement, leveraging his prior congressional name recognition despite past controversies. Local media executive Jim Schwartzel holds 17.5% on business-oriented messaging as a non-carpetbagger alternative, while self-funded Jim Oberweis lags at 9.5% amid concerns over his age and Illinois roots. Absent public polls, pricing reflects early fundraising edges—Oberweis at nearly $3 million cash-on-hand—and perceived momentum, with candidate filing deadline April 24 potentially reshaping the crowded field.

Trader consensus positions Catalina Lauf as the clear frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability to win Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary on August 18, propelled by her Trump administration service, conservative influencer status, and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February, signaling strong MAGA appeal in this open seat vacated by Byron Donalds. Madison Cawthorn's odds climbed to 17.2% after Johnny Fratto's late February withdrawal and endorsement, leveraging his prior congressional name recognition despite past controversies. Local media executive Jim Schwartzel holds 17.5% on business-oriented messaging as a non-carpetbagger alternative, while self-funded Jim Oberweis lags at 9.5% amid concerns over his age and Illinois roots. Absent public polls, pricing reflects early fundraising edges—Oberweis at nearly $3 million cash-on-hand—and perceived momentum, with candidate filing deadline April 24 potentially reshaping the crowded field.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「FL -19共和党予備選」はPolymarket上の6個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「カタリナ・ラウフ」で55%、次いで「ジム・シュワーツェル」が19%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、55¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に55%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「FL -19共和党予備選」は$18.2Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 25, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「FL -19共和党予備選」で取引するには、このページに記載されている6個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「FL -19共和党予備選」の現在のフロントランナーは「カタリナ・ラウフ」で55%であり、市場がこの結果に55%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ジム・シュワーツェル」で19%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「FL -19共和党予備選」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。