Market icon
政治·プライマリ

FL -19共和党予備選

Market icon
政治·プライマリ

FL -19共和党予備選

カタリナ・ラウフ 40%

マディソン・コーソーン 16.2%

ジム・オーバーワイス 9.5%

ジム・シュワーツェル 5%

Polymarket

$18,239 Vol.

カタリナ・ラウフ 40%

マディソン・コーソーン 16.2%

ジム・オーバーワイス 9.5%

ジム・シュワーツェル 5%

Polymarket

$18,239 Vol.

カタリナ・ラウフ

$15,461 Vol.

55%

マディソン・コーソーン

$721 Vol.

16%

ジム・オーバーワイス

$2,057 Vol.

10%

ジム・シュワーツェル

$0 Vol.

19%

スペンサー・ローチ

$0 Vol.

5%

ボブ・ロメル

$0 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open Republican primary for Florida's 19th Congressional District on August 18, trader consensus favors Catalina Lauf at 53% implied probability, propelled by her Trump administration role at the Department of Commerce, early congressional endorsements, and a reported fundraising surge topping $1.3 million by mid-January 2026. Jim Schwartzel trails at 20.5% on strong local ties as a Southwest Florida media owner, leading outside donations, and a $1.28 million cash-on-hand war chest as of year-end 2025. Madison Cawthorn's 14.9% reflects lingering name recognition from his prior House service despite legal controversies, while Jim Oberweis's self-funded $2.9 million bolsters his 9.4% amid criticism as an Illinois transplant. Recent withdrawals like John Fratto's (endorsing Cawthorn) and all major candidates' bids for a Trump endorsement underscore the fluid race, with no public polls available and filing deadline approaching April 24.

In the open Republican primary for Florida's 19th Congressional District on August 18, trader consensus favors Catalina Lauf at 53% implied probability, propelled by her Trump administration role at the Department of Commerce, early congressional endorsements, and a reported fundraising surge topping $1.3 million by mid-January 2026. Jim Schwartzel trails at 20.5% on strong local ties as a Southwest Florida media owner, leading outside donations, and a $1.28 million cash-on-hand war chest as of year-end 2025. Madison Cawthorn's 14.9% reflects lingering name recognition from his prior House service despite legal controversies, while Jim Oberweis's self-funded $2.9 million bolsters his 9.4% amid criticism as an Illinois transplant. Recent withdrawals like John Fratto's (endorsing Cawthorn) and all major candidates' bids for a Trump endorsement underscore the fluid race, with no public polls available and filing deadline approaching April 24.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In the open Republican primary for Florida's 19th Congressional District on August 18, trader consensus favors Catalina Lauf at 53% implied probability, propelled by her Trump administration role at the Department of Commerce, early congressional endorsements, and a reported fundraising surge topping $1.3 million by mid-January 2026. Jim Schwartzel trails at 20.5% on strong local ties as a Southwest Florida media owner, leading outside donations, and a $1.28 million cash-on-hand war chest as of year-end 2025. Madison Cawthorn's 14.9% reflects lingering name recognition from his prior House service despite legal controversies, while Jim Oberweis's self-funded $2.9 million bolsters his 9.4% amid criticism as an Illinois transplant. Recent withdrawals like John Fratto's (endorsing Cawthorn) and all major candidates' bids for a Trump endorsement underscore the fluid race, with no public polls available and filing deadline approaching April 24.

In the open Republican primary for Florida's 19th Congressional District on August 18, trader consensus favors Catalina Lauf at 53% implied probability, propelled by her Trump administration role at the Department of Commerce, early congressional endorsements, and a reported fundraising surge topping $1.3 million by mid-January 2026. Jim Schwartzel trails at 20.5% on strong local ties as a Southwest Florida media owner, leading outside donations, and a $1.28 million cash-on-hand war chest as of year-end 2025. Madison Cawthorn's 14.9% reflects lingering name recognition from his prior House service despite legal controversies, while Jim Oberweis's self-funded $2.9 million bolsters his 9.4% amid criticism as an Illinois transplant. Recent withdrawals like John Fratto's (endorsing Cawthorn) and all major candidates' bids for a Trump endorsement underscore the fluid race, with no public polls available and filing deadline approaching April 24.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「FL -19共和党予備選」はPolymarket上の6個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「カタリナ・ラウフ」で55%、次いで「ジム・シュワーツェル」が20%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、55¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に55%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「FL -19共和党予備選」は$18.2Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 25, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「FL -19共和党予備選」で取引するには、このページに記載されている6個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「FL -19共和党予備選」の現在のフロントランナーは「カタリナ・ラウフ」で55%であり、市場がこの結果に55%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ジム・シュワーツェル」で20%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「FL -19共和党予備選」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。