Strong August U.S. payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above consensus, alongside a steady 4.1% unemployment rate have lifted market-implied odds of a September 25-basis-point hike to roughly 60%, reflecting a resilient labor market that reduces the case for near-term easing. Persistent headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July, with energy prices elevated amid geopolitical supply pressures, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh have shifted trader consensus toward possible rate increases at the September 15-16, November, or December FOMC meetings. The dispersed outcome probabilities—led by Pause-Pause-Pause at 29%—capture uncertainty ahead of the September 11 CPI release, with outcomes hinging on whether incoming inflation data and Fed communications confirm a tighter policy path or support holding the 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ポーズ・ポーズ・ポーズ 29%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き 15%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き 13%
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ 11%
$14,885 Vol.
$14,885 Vol.
2026/12/09
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ
11%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き
15%
連続利上げ
6%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き
13%
据え置き・据え置き・利上げ
6%
ポーズ・ポーズ・ポーズ
29%
ポーズ・利上げ・利上げ
9%
据え置き–利上げ–据え置き
7%
その他
7%
ポーズ・ポーズ・ポーズ 29%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き 15%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き 13%
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ 11%
$14,885 Vol.
$14,885 Vol.
2026/12/09
利上げ→据え置き→利上げ
$329 Vol.
11%
利上げ–据え置き–据え置き
$538 Vol.
15%
連続利上げ
$231 Vol.
6%
引き上げ–引き上げ–据え置き
$474 Vol.
13%
据え置き・据え置き・利上げ
$618 Vol.
6%
ポーズ・ポーズ・ポーズ
$11,696 Vol.
29%
ポーズ・利上げ・利上げ
$364 Vol.
9%
据え置き–利上げ–据え置き
$366 Vol.
7%
その他
$269 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmStrong August U.S. payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above consensus, alongside a steady 4.1% unemployment rate have lifted market-implied odds of a September 25-basis-point hike to roughly 60%, reflecting a resilient labor market that reduces the case for near-term easing. Persistent headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July, with energy prices elevated amid geopolitical supply pressures, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh have shifted trader consensus toward possible rate increases at the September 15-16, November, or December FOMC meetings. The dispersed outcome probabilities—led by Pause-Pause-Pause at 29%—capture uncertainty ahead of the September 11 CPI release, with outcomes hinging on whether incoming inflation data and Fed communications confirm a tighter policy path or support holding the 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
音量
$14,885終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmStrong August U.S. payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above consensus, alongside a steady 4.1% unemployment rate have lifted market-implied odds of a September 25-basis-point hike to roughly 60%, reflecting a resilient labor market that reduces the case for near-term easing. Persistent headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July, with energy prices elevated amid geopolitical supply pressures, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh have shifted trader consensus toward possible rate increases at the September 15-16, November, or December FOMC meetings. The dispersed outcome probabilities—led by Pause-Pause-Pause at 29%—capture uncertainty ahead of the September 11 CPI release, with outcomes hinging on whether incoming inflation data and Fed communications confirm a tighter policy path or support holding the 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$14,885終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Strong August U.S. payrolls of 162,000 jobs, well above consensus, alongside a steady 4.1% unemployment rate have lifted market-implied odds of a September 25-basis-point hike to roughly 60%, reflecting a resilient labor market that reduces the case for near-term easing. Persistent headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in July, with energy prices elevated amid geopolitical supply pressures, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh have shifted trader consensus toward possible rate increases at the September 15-16, November, or December FOMC meetings. The dispersed outcome probabilities—led by Pause-Pause-Pause at 29%—capture uncertainty ahead of the September 11 CPI release, with outcomes hinging on whether incoming inflation data and Fed communications confirm a tighter policy path or support holding the 3.50%-3.75% target range through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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