Market-implied odds strongly favor a Hike-Pause-Hike sequence through December, driven by persistent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target and a resilient labor market that have kept the central bank on a cautious tightening path. Recent CPI and employment data releases have reinforced trader expectations for an initial rate increase, followed by a pause to assess effects, then another adjustment, aligning closely with FOMC communications and the latest dot plot projections. This pricing reflects aggregated capital at risk rather than certainty, as the funds rate path remains data-dependent. November employment figures and the December FOMC meeting represent the main near-term catalysts that could still alter positioning if they deviate materially from consensus forecasts.