The Fed's September 2026 hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range, paired with a median dot-plot projection of 4.1% by year-end, anchors trader sentiment for the October 27-28, December 8-9, and January 26-27 meetings. Elevated inflation readings, with August headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE revised higher in the latest SEP, support expectations of at least one additional 25-basis-point move, most likely in December when fresh projections arrive. The September jobs report's soft +29,000 payroll gain and 4.2% unemployment rate introduce some caution around October action, yet resilient growth and sticky price pressures keep the implied path skewed toward Pause-Hike-Pause or Pause-Hike-Hike sequences. Market-implied odds embed this data-driven consensus while pricing in residual uncertainty ahead of incoming labor and inflation releases.
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