Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, combined with resilient economic growth and labor market conditions, anchor the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The current 3.50–3.75% policy stance, maintained through multiple 2026 meetings amid energy-driven price pressures and services inflation, has prompted traders to price in a higher terminal rate path near 3.8% by year-end, supporting the 24.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike. Futures markets reflect gradual tightening expectations, with the September 11 CPI release and subsequent FOMC communications likely to refine these probabilities amid uncertainty over the policy trajectory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日No change 61%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 25%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 3.5%
$62,478 Vol.
$62,478 Vol.
2027/01/27
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
61%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
25%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
2%
No change 61%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 25%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 3.5%
$62,478 Vol.
$62,478 Vol.
2027/01/27
50+ bps decrease
$13,099 Vol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$11,934 Vol.
14%
No change
$19,062 Vol.
61%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$15,867 Vol.
25%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
$2,515 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, combined with resilient economic growth and labor market conditions, anchor the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The current 3.50–3.75% policy stance, maintained through multiple 2026 meetings amid energy-driven price pressures and services inflation, has prompted traders to price in a higher terminal rate path near 3.8% by year-end, supporting the 24.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike. Futures markets reflect gradual tightening expectations, with the September 11 CPI release and subsequent FOMC communications likely to refine these probabilities amid uncertainty over the policy trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
音量
$62,478終了日
2027/01/27マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, combined with resilient economic growth and labor market conditions, anchor the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The current 3.50–3.75% policy stance, maintained through multiple 2026 meetings amid energy-driven price pressures and services inflation, has prompted traders to price in a higher terminal rate path near 3.8% by year-end, supporting the 24.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike. Futures markets reflect gradual tightening expectations, with the September 11 CPI release and subsequent FOMC communications likely to refine these probabilities amid uncertainty over the policy trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$62,478終了日
2027/01/27マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures, highlighted by July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, combined with resilient economic growth and labor market conditions, anchor the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at the January 2027 FOMC meeting. The current 3.50–3.75% policy stance, maintained through multiple 2026 meetings amid energy-driven price pressures and services inflation, has prompted traders to price in a higher terminal rate path near 3.8% by year-end, supporting the 24.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike. Futures markets reflect gradual tightening expectations, with the September 11 CPI release and subsequent FOMC communications likely to refine these probabilities amid uncertainty over the policy trajectory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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