Traders see nearly even odds between no change and a 25 basis point hike for the December FOMC decision, reflecting uncertainty over whether inflation has stabilized near the 2% target or remains sticky enough to warrant further tightening. Recent labor market data showing resilient employment alongside moderating wage growth, combined with core PCE readings, have kept the market-implied path balanced rather than skewed toward easing. Treasury yields and the Fed funds futures curve continue to price in this contest, with the next inflation release and employment report serving as key swing factors before the December meeting. Stronger-than-expected growth or reacceleration in prices could tilt sentiment toward a hike, while cooler data would reinforce expectations of a hold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日変更なし 45%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 5.5%
50+ bps increase 1.7%
$528,882 Vol.
$528,882 Vol.
2026/12/09
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
5%
変更なし
45%
25 bps increase
44%
50+ bps increase
2%
変更なし 45%
25 bps increase 44%
25 bps decrease 5.5%
50+ bps increase 1.7%
$528,882 Vol.
$528,882 Vol.
2026/12/09
50+ bps decrease
$84,993 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$134,776 Vol.
5%
変更なし
$81,826 Vol.
45%
25 bps increase
$138,524 Vol.
44%
50+ bps increase
$88,764 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders see nearly even odds between no change and a 25 basis point hike for the December FOMC decision, reflecting uncertainty over whether inflation has stabilized near the 2% target or remains sticky enough to warrant further tightening. Recent labor market data showing resilient employment alongside moderating wage growth, combined with core PCE readings, have kept the market-implied path balanced rather than skewed toward easing. Treasury yields and the Fed funds futures curve continue to price in this contest, with the next inflation release and employment report serving as key swing factors before the December meeting. Stronger-than-expected growth or reacceleration in prices could tilt sentiment toward a hike, while cooler data would reinforce expectations of a hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
音量
$528,882終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders see nearly even odds between no change and a 25 basis point hike for the December FOMC decision, reflecting uncertainty over whether inflation has stabilized near the 2% target or remains sticky enough to warrant further tightening. Recent labor market data showing resilient employment alongside moderating wage growth, combined with core PCE readings, have kept the market-implied path balanced rather than skewed toward easing. Treasury yields and the Fed funds futures curve continue to price in this contest, with the next inflation release and employment report serving as key swing factors before the December meeting. Stronger-than-expected growth or reacceleration in prices could tilt sentiment toward a hike, while cooler data would reinforce expectations of a hold.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$528,882終了日
2026/12/09マーケット開始日
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Traders see nearly even odds between no change and a 25 basis point hike for the December FOMC decision, reflecting uncertainty over whether inflation has stabilized near the 2% target or remains sticky enough to warrant further tightening. Recent labor market data showing resilient employment alongside moderating wage growth, combined with core PCE readings, have kept the market-implied path balanced rather than skewed toward easing. Treasury yields and the Fed funds futures curve continue to price in this contest, with the next inflation release and employment report serving as key swing factors before the December meeting. Stronger-than-expected growth or reacceleration in prices could tilt sentiment toward a hike, while cooler data would reinforce expectations of a hold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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