Persistent inflation, with August CPI holding at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures showing limited progress toward the 2% target amid elevated energy prices, forms the core driver behind trader pricing for one or two 25-basis-point Fed hikes in 2026. Recent data and FOMC communications under Chair Warsh have shifted market-implied odds from earlier cut expectations to a near-even split between one and two total increases, reflecting hawkish dot-plot revisions and analyst forecasts for action at the September and potentially December meetings. Strong labor conditions and supply-side pressures add to the case for tightening, though uncertainty over inflation persistence versus growth risks keeps the two leading outcomes closely contested at roughly 47.5% and 44.5%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
1 (25 bps) 48%
2 (50 bps) 45%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 7.6%
0 (0 bps) 3.2%
$422,449 Vol.
$422,449 Vol.
2026/12/31
0 (0 bps)
3%
1 (25 bps)
48%
2 (50 bps)
45%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
8%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
1 (25 bps) 48%
2 (50 bps) 45%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 7.6%
0 (0 bps) 3.2%
$422,449 Vol.
$422,449 Vol.
2026/12/31
0 (0 bps)
$131,282 Vol.
3%
1 (25 bps)
$69,406 Vol.
48%
2 (50 bps)
$93,553 Vol.
45%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
$67,646 Vol.
8%
4 (100 bps)
$32,123 Vol.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$28,440 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation, with August CPI holding at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures showing limited progress toward the 2% target amid elevated energy prices, forms the core driver behind trader pricing for one or two 25-basis-point Fed hikes in 2026. Recent data and FOMC communications under Chair Warsh have shifted market-implied odds from earlier cut expectations to a near-even split between one and two total increases, reflecting hawkish dot-plot revisions and analyst forecasts for action at the September and potentially December meetings. Strong labor conditions and supply-side pressures add to the case for tightening, though uncertainty over inflation persistence versus growth risks keeps the two leading outcomes closely contested at roughly 47.5% and 44.5%.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
マーケット開始日： Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
音量
$422,449終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Persistent inflation, with August CPI holding at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures showing limited progress toward the 2% target amid elevated energy prices, forms the core driver behind trader pricing for one or two 25-basis-point Fed hikes in 2026. Recent data and FOMC communications under Chair Warsh have shifted market-implied odds from earlier cut expectations to a near-even split between one and two total increases, reflecting hawkish dot-plot revisions and analyst forecasts for action at the September and potentially December meetings. Strong labor conditions and supply-side pressures add to the case for tightening, though uncertainty over inflation persistence versus growth risks keeps the two leading outcomes closely contested at roughly 47.5% and 44.5%.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
音量
$422,449終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation, with August CPI holding at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures showing limited progress toward the 2% target amid elevated energy prices, forms the core driver behind trader pricing for one or two 25-basis-point Fed hikes in 2026. Recent data and FOMC communications under Chair Warsh have shifted market-implied odds from earlier cut expectations to a near-even split between one and two total increases, reflecting hawkish dot-plot revisions and analyst forecasts for action at the September and potentially December meetings. Strong labor conditions and supply-side pressures add to the case for tightening, though uncertainty over inflation persistence versus growth risks keeps the two leading outcomes closely contested at roughly 47.5% and 44.5%.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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