Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.3% implied probability to FOMC pauses at the January, March, and upcoming April 2026 meetings, reflecting confirmed holds of the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% in prior sessions amid resilient economic data. The Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision (11-1 vote) cited balanced risks to maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, bolstered by March CPI showing three-month core annualized at 2.9% and unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling no urgent need for cuts. Stable jobless claims near 219,000 further reinforce the pause. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening labor metrics ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, potentially prompting a dovish shift despite dot plot signaling one 2026 cut later.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き–据え置き–据え置き 99.3%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ <1%
その他 <1%
$651,475 Vol.
$651,475 Vol.
2026/04/29
据え置き–据え置き–据え置き
99%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
1%
その他
<1%
据え置き–据え置き–据え置き 99.3%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ <1%
その他 <1%
$651,475 Vol.
$651,475 Vol.
2026/04/29
据え置き–据え置き–据え置き
$98,089 Vol.
99%
据え置き–据え置き–利下げ
$235,705 Vol.
1%
その他
$277,695 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.3% implied probability to FOMC pauses at the January, March, and upcoming April 2026 meetings, reflecting confirmed holds of the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% in prior sessions amid resilient economic data. The Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision (11-1 vote) cited balanced risks to maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, bolstered by March CPI showing three-month core annualized at 2.9% and unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling no urgent need for cuts. Stable jobless claims near 219,000 further reinforce the pause. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening labor metrics ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, potentially prompting a dovish shift despite dot plot signaling one 2026 cut later.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
音量
$651,475終了日
2026/04/29マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.3% implied probability to FOMC pauses at the January, March, and upcoming April 2026 meetings, reflecting confirmed holds of the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% in prior sessions amid resilient economic data. The Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision (11-1 vote) cited balanced risks to maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, bolstered by March CPI showing three-month core annualized at 2.9% and unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling no urgent need for cuts. Stable jobless claims near 219,000 further reinforce the pause. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening labor metrics ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, potentially prompting a dovish shift despite dot plot signaling one 2026 cut later.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$651,475終了日
2026/04/29マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.3% implied probability to FOMC pauses at the January, March, and upcoming April 2026 meetings, reflecting confirmed holds of the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% in prior sessions amid resilient economic data. The Federal Reserve's March 17-18 decision (11-1 vote) cited balanced risks to maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, bolstered by March CPI showing three-month core annualized at 2.9% and unemployment dipping to 4.3%, signaling no urgent need for cuts. Stable jobless claims near 219,000 further reinforce the pause. Realistic challenges include hotter-than-expected April CPI (due May 12) or weakening labor metrics ahead of the April 28-29 meeting, potentially prompting a dovish shift despite dot plot signaling one 2026 cut later.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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