Incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin (D) drives the commanding 94.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in California's 15th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic seat with a Cook PVI of D+26 encompassing most of San Mateo County. Mullin's recent re-election announcement on March 16, substantial fundraising lead ($229,000 cash on hand), and local acclaim for traveling from a hospital to vote against a Republican budget proposal bolster his frontrunner status ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Weak Republican opposition, led by low-fundraising Charles Hoelter, mirrors Mullin's 73% 2024 landslide. Upsets could stem from a primary surprise yielding a vulnerable Democratic nominee, a major scandal, or an extraordinary national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$37,892 Vol.
$37,892 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
95%
共和党
4%
$37,892 Vol.
$37,892 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$28,696 Vol.
95%
共和党
$9,196 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin (D) drives the commanding 94.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in California's 15th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic seat with a Cook PVI of D+26 encompassing most of San Mateo County. Mullin's recent re-election announcement on March 16, substantial fundraising lead ($229,000 cash on hand), and local acclaim for traveling from a hospital to vote against a Republican budget proposal bolster his frontrunner status ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Weak Republican opposition, led by low-fundraising Charles Hoelter, mirrors Mullin's 73% 2024 landslide. Upsets could stem from a primary surprise yielding a vulnerable Democratic nominee, a major scandal, or an extraordinary national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$37,892終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin (D) drives the commanding 94.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in California's 15th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic seat with a Cook PVI of D+26 encompassing most of San Mateo County. Mullin's recent re-election announcement on March 16, substantial fundraising lead ($229,000 cash on hand), and local acclaim for traveling from a hospital to vote against a Republican budget proposal bolster his frontrunner status ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Weak Republican opposition, led by low-fundraising Charles Hoelter, mirrors Mullin's 73% 2024 landslide. Upsets could stem from a primary surprise yielding a vulnerable Democratic nominee, a major scandal, or an extraordinary national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$37,892終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Kevin Mullin (D) drives the commanding 94.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in California's 15th Congressional District, a solidly Democratic seat with a Cook PVI of D+26 encompassing most of San Mateo County. Mullin's recent re-election announcement on March 16, substantial fundraising lead ($229,000 cash on hand), and local acclaim for traveling from a hospital to vote against a Republican budget proposal bolster his frontrunner status ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Weak Republican opposition, led by low-fundraising Charles Hoelter, mirrors Mullin's 73% 2024 landslide. Upsets could stem from a primary surprise yielding a vulnerable Democratic nominee, a major scandal, or an extraordinary national Republican midterm wave, though structural barriers remain high.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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